Sufian Abu Zaida says he acted for more than a year as an intermediary in a secret Israel–Hamas channel that began in March 2022 to pursue a prisoner-exchange deal. During a September 14, 2023 meeting, Zaida says Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar dictated a warning — that Hamas would place 'cards' that would cause an 'earthquake' and that Israel should expect the 'emptying of the prisons' — which Zaida relayed in Hebrew and Arabic. Israeli officials urgently sought clarification and summoned Zaida to a meeting in Ashkelon; the contact channel ended without a deal. Roughly three weeks after the warning, the October 7 attack occurred.
Former Fatah Official Reveals Sinwar’s 'Earthquake' Warning to Israel Weeks Before Oct. 7 Attack
Senior Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, speaks during a conference in Gaza city, on November 4, 2019. (photo credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)
Former Fatah official Sufian Abu Zaida has offered new details about a warning he says he relayed from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to Israeli officials roughly three weeks before the October 7, 2023 attack. The account was given in a documentary broadcast on Al-Ghad and sheds light on a covert contact channel that sought to negotiate a prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas.
Secret Channel And Negotiations
Zaida said he served for more than a year as an intermediary in a back-channel that began in March 2022 after senior Hamas figure Ghazi Hamad asked him to help advance talks. Zaida contacted a former senior Israeli security official and subsequently met with current Israeli representatives as the parties discussed names, lists and conditions for a possible prisoner exchange.
Hamas Demands And Israeli Offers
According to Zaida, Hamas set detailed conditions for any deal: the release of all female prisoners, detainees under 18, militants released in the Gilad Schalit swap who were later rearrested, and long-serving prisoners, with priority given to the sick. Zaida said he conveyed those conditions to then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar.
Former Fatah official Sofian Abu Zaida in a documentary by Alghad TV, September 24, 2026. (credit: Screenshot/YouTube/Alghad TV)
He also said the Israeli side proposed extensive measures to benefit Gaza in return for progress on the prisoner issue, including expanding the number of Gazan workers allowed into Israel, repairing the electricity grid and other infrastructure, and accelerating reconstruction efforts. Despite apparent progress, the sides did not reach a final agreement.
The 'Earthquake' Warning
Zaida recounts that during a September 14, 2023 meeting in Gaza, Sinwar dictated a precise message: Hamas would place new 'cards' on the negotiating table that would cause an 'earthquake' and that Israel should prepare for the 'emptying of the prisons.' Sinwar asked Zaida to transmit the wording exactly as given.
Zaida says he relayed the message to Israeli officials in both Hebrew and Arabic. He was contacted within half an hour for confirmation that those were Sinwar’s exact words and was summoned the next morning to an urgent meeting in Ashkelon, where officials pressed him to explain what Sinwar meant by an "earthquake" and the referenced "cards." Zaida told them Sinwar had been calm when he delivered the warning.
Aftermath And Timing
Zaida said that meeting was the final session held through the contact channel. He returned to Gaza on October 5 and was due to meet Sinwar again on October 8; that planned encounter never happened. Roughly three weeks after Zaida relayed Sinwar’s warning, the October 7 attack took place.
This account, as presented in the Al-Ghad documentary, provides previously undisclosed detail about the content and impact of the message on Israeli security circles and adds context to the diplomatic and security interaction between Israel and Hamas in the months before the attack.
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