Decision Desk HQ retracted its projection that Tom Malinowski had won the New Jersey 11th District Democratic primary after late returns shifted the race in favor of progressive Analilia Mejia. With roughly 95% reporting, Mejia led 28.8% to Malinowski's 28% — a margin under 500 votes in a 12-candidate contest. Decision Desk HQ said Morris County drops showing Mejia up 20%–30% (about a 65-point swing versus absentee ballots) prompted the retraction and apologized. The Democratic nominee will face Republican Joe Hathaway in an April 16 special election for the seat vacated last year by Mikie Sherrill.
Decision Desk HQ Retracts Malinowski Call After Mejia Surge in Tight NJ-11 Primary
The New Jersey Democratic primary for the state's 11th Congressional District turned into a nail-biter Thursday night after Decision Desk HQ retracted an earlier projection that had declared former Congressman Tom Malinowski the winner.
Decision Desk HQ initially called the race for Malinowski but later removed that projection as incoming returns contradicted its assumptions. A late surge by progressive activist Analilia Mejia, especially in Morris County, altered the trajectory of the race and left the outcome in doubt.
Late Returns Narrow The Contest
With roughly 95% of precincts reporting, Mejia held a narrow lead with 28.8% of the vote to Malinowski's 28% — a gap of fewer than 500 votes in a crowded, 12-candidate field. Those late returns prompted the outlet to revisit and ultimately retract its projection.
"Decision Desk HQ is retracting its projection in the NJ-11 Democratic primary."
In a detailed post on X, Decision Desk HQ said it deleted the original call after Morris County election-day returns swung decisively toward Mejia. The organization noted that Mejia was winning late "drops" by 20%–30%, representing roughly a 65-point swing compared with absentee voting patterns, a reversal that undercut its earlier assumptions. The outlet apologized for the inaccurate projection.
The Democratic nominee will face Republican Joe Hathaway, the mayor of Randolph, in a special general election on April 16. The seat opened after Representative Mikie Sherrill resigned last year.
Because the margin is so tight, the final result will depend on the remaining canvass, county certifications and any provisional or late-arriving ballots.
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