Two Twin Cities-area special elections will decide control of the Minnesota House, where Republicans hold a 67-65 edge. District 47A lists Democrat Shelley Buck as the only candidate on the ballot and will be treated as uncontested by the AP unless an organized write-in campaign appears. District 64A pits Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai against Republican Dan Walsh, who must substantially improve on prior ~15%–17% showings to be competitive. Polls close at 8 p.m. local (9 p.m. ET); Minnesota allows a public recount if the final margin is under 0.5%.
Minnesota Special Elections Could Flip House Control — What To Watch Tonight
Protesters gather in front of the Minnesota State Capitol in response to the death of Renee Good, who was fatally shot by an ICE officer last week, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in St. Paul, Minn. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Two special elections in heavily Democratic Twin Cities-area state House districts will determine control of the Minnesota House of Representatives for the third time in less than a year. Republicans currently hold a 67-65 edge after two Democrats won other offices, and the chamber has operated under a power-sharing arrangement for much of the past year.
Quick Overview
The contests come amid heightened tensions in Minneapolis following the fatal shootings of two people by federal immigration officers in recent weeks, events that have prompted protests and renewed debate over federal law enforcement activity in Minnesota.
The Races
District 47A: Democrat Shelley Buck is the only name printed on the ballot; voters may still cast write-in votes. Buck is a former environmental nonprofit executive and served as president of the Prairie Island Tribal Council. The district lies east of St. Paul, mostly in Washington County with a portion in Ramsey County. In 2024 the district voted roughly 61% for Democratic candidates in statewide and federal races.
District 64A: Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai faces Republican Dan Walsh. Luger-Nikolai is a labor attorney who represented a statewide teachers union. Walsh runs a real estate property management company and has professional experience in cybersecurity and tech sales; he was the GOP nominee for this seat in 2022 and 2024. The district is fully inside Ramsey County and stretches between St. Paul and Minneapolis; Democratic candidates carried it by large margins in 2024.
How The Associated Press Will Handle Results
Because Buck is unopposed on the ballot in 47A, The Associated Press will treat that contest as uncontested and will call the race as soon as polls close unless there is clear evidence of an organized write-in campaign for another candidate. In 64A, Walsh would need to substantially improve on his prior vote shares (about 15% in 2022 and 17% in 2024) to be competitive. With most votes expected to be reported in one or two large batches, a decisive margin could allow an early call.
The AP does not issue projections. It will declare a winner only when there is no plausible path for a trailing candidate to overcome the deficit. If a race remains uncalled, the AP will continue to report newsworthy developments — such as concessions or victory declarations — while explicitly noting that it has not yet made a call and explaining why.
Recounts And Challenges
Minnesota does not provide automatic recounts for state legislative races. A losing candidate may request a publicly funded recount if the margin is under 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may still declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Turnout, Timing And What To Watch
As of June 1, 2025, each district had nearly 28,000 registered voters. Turnout in recent general elections: about 23,000 ballots in 47A in 2024 (roughly half cast before Election Day) and about 25,000 ballots in 64A in 2024 (about 41% cast early). Late pre-election returns showed just under 300 early ballots already cast in 47A and about 400 in 64A.
Polls Close: 8 p.m. local time (9 p.m. ET).
Vote Counting: Past reporting shows results can be posted late in the evening or in the early morning hours, depending on reporting batches. Absentee and early vote totals in Ramsey and Washington counties have typically been released alongside in-person returns throughout the night.
Why This Matters
The two special elections will determine which party controls the Minnesota House — a shift that could affect state policy and legislative priorities. Watch for large vote batches, any sign of an organized write-in campaign in 47A, and whether margins in 64A are small enough to trigger a recount request.
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