What to Expect in New Jersey’s Special Democratic Primary for the 11th District

WASHINGTON — Voters across northern New Jersey will head to the polls Thursday for a special Democratic primary to fill the U.S. House seat vacated by Mikie Sherrill, who resigned after being elected governor.

The Field

Eleven Democrats remain on the ballot in the crowded primary: Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett; venture capitalist Zach Beecher; attorney and comedian J-L Cauvin; nonprofit executive Cammie Croft; Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill; Morris Township Committeeman Jeff Grayzel; former U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski; progressive organizer Analilia Mejia; Chatham Borough Councilman Justin Strickland; former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way; and community activist Anna Lee Williams. Two other Democratic candidates have withdrawn but their names will still appear on the ballot.

What’s At Stake

The primary winner will face the unopposed Republican nominee, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, in a special general election on April 16. Because the 11th District leans Democratic, the outcome could narrow the Republican majority in the U.S. House.

Money and Outside Spending

Former Rep. Tom Malinowski led the field in fundraising heading into the final days of the abbreviated campaign, but he has been the target of roughly $1.6 million in negative ads from a super PAC tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. A separate super PAC affiliated with the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association has spent about $1.5 million supporting Tahesha Way.

Geography and Voter Registration

The district contains 588 precincts: more than half are in Morris County, about 39% are in Essex County and roughly 9% are in Passaic County. Several candidates are from Morris County (Beecher, Grayzel, Strickland, Williams); Cauvin, Croft, Gill and Mejia are based in Essex County; and Way is from Passaic County. Malinowski lives outside the district today but previously represented part of Essex County until his 2022 defeat.

As of the most recent update, the 11th District had about 602,000 registered voters: roughly 226,000 Democrats, about 165,000 Republicans and about 206,000 unaffiliated voters, with the remainder registered with minor parties.

How Voting Works

Only registered members of a political party may vote in that party’s primary; unaffiliated voters may participate if they affiliate with a party at the polling place. Polls in the district close at 8 p.m. ET.

Early Voting and Turnout

Primary turnout in recent cycles: about 52,000 votes in the 2024 Democratic primary and roughly 38,000 in 2022. Early and absentee ballots accounted for about 48% of the primary vote in 2024 and about 47% in 2022. As of Monday, more than 25,000 ballots from registered Democrats and about 5,400 from registered Republicans had already been returned, along with 29 ballots from unaffiliated voters.

Counting, Calls and Recounts

The Associated Press will report vote totals and will only declare a winner when it determines there is no plausible scenario for trailing candidates to catch up. New Jersey does not trigger automatic recounts; candidates or voters can request and pay for recounts (the state will refund the cost if the recount changes the outcome). The AP may call a race that is subject to a recount if the incumbent lead is large enough that a recount or legal challenge is unlikely to change the result.

What To Expect Thursday

• Polls close at 8 p.m. ET; the AP typically posts initial results shortly after polls close.
• Early and absentee vote totals are released by counties in their first update of the night, before most in-person Election Day results.
• The Democratic nominee is favored in the April special general, given recent performance in the district (Sherrill won about 57% in 2024 and the Democratic presidential nominee carried the district by roughly 53%).

Associated Press writer Leah Askarinam contributed to this report.