Mike Duggan’s independent run has transformed Michigan’s 2026 governor’s race into a tight three‑way contest, raising the prospect that he could siphon votes from both major parties. A January Detroit News/WDIV poll shows James 34%, Benson 32% and Duggan 26%; without Duggan, Benson would lead James 47% to 45% (±4 points). Duggan’s high name recognition and favorable ratings, heavy ad spending and cautious approach to criticizing Donald Trump have deepened a strategic dilemma for Democrats about whether to emphasize anti‑Trump messaging or kitchen‑table issues like inflation and health care.
Independent Mike Duggan and the Trump Factor Upend Michigan's 2026 Governor Race
Then-Mayor Mike Duggan in Detroit in 2024. (Paul Sancya / AP file)(Paul Sancya)
DETROIT — Michigan’s 2026 governor’s race has taken an unexpected turn with former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an independent and emerging as a potential vote‑splitter between Democratic frontrunner Jocelyn Benson and Republican Rep. John James. Duggan’s strong name recognition, sizable ad spending and cautious posture toward former President Donald Trump have created a high‑stakes three‑way contest in a crucial swing state.
Duggan’s Candidacy and the Money Behind It
Ad‑tracking firm AdImpact reports that more than two‑thirds of roughly $3.5 million spent on advertising in the governor’s race since last January has come from Duggan’s campaign or outside groups backing him. Duggan, a longtime Democrat who served as Detroit’s mayor and helped lead the city through a near‑bankruptcy turnaround, says he will criticize Trump on specific policies — for example, Canadian tariffs he blames for hurting Michigan’s auto sector — but rejects constant partisan outrage.
Polling Shows a Tight Three‑Way Race
A January poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV of Detroit found John James at 34%, Jocelyn Benson at 32% and Mike Duggan at 26% (margin of error ±4 points). The same survey showed that without Duggan on the ballot the race would flip to Benson 47% and James 45%. Pollsters from the Glengariff Group also noted that Duggan has the highest name recognition and the strongest favorability rating of any gubernatorial candidate in Michigan.
Rep. John James, R-Mich., at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in 2024. (Paul Sancya / AP file)(Paul Sancya)
Democrats’ Dilemma: Trump Versus Kitchen‑Table Issues
Michigan Democrats face a difficult calculation: continue to energize the party base by tying Republican opponents to Trump and threats to democracy, or pivot harder to everyday concerns like inflation, jobs and health care that poll as voters’ top priorities. Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel emphasizes affordability and kitchen‑table issues but also argues that Trump’s policies make those problems worse.
“I think we have to have a message about affordability,” Hertel said. “It’s impossible to talk about those things without at least saying the president is making these things harder.”
Candidates’ Positions and Partisan Dynamics
Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state and the leading Democratic candidate, frames economic concerns alongside warnings about threats to democracy. Rep. John James and other Republicans, including businessman Perry Johnson, have aligned with Trump. National Democrats have criticized Duggan for taking money from pro‑Trump donors and for hedging on questions about the former president.
Duggan’s campaign counters that roughly half of its funding comes from traditional Democratic sources and that his independence allows him to appeal across party lines. Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Kevin Donohoe and other national Democrats have pushed back, saying Michigan voters need a governor who won’t kowtow to Trump‑aligned policies.
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson on Capitol Hill in 2024. (Alex Wong / Getty Images file)(Alex Wong)
Context: Why Michigan Matters
Michigan has been a pivotal Midwestern battleground: narrow margins decided the state in 2016 and 2024, and in 2020 the result was also close. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leaves office popular — the Detroit News/WDIV poll found her favorability at 53% and nearly 60% approval for her job performance — while President Trump’s favorability (38%) and approval (45%) lag behind. Voters prioritized jobs, inflation and health care over “fighting Trump and the Republicans,” the poll found.
What To Watch
- Whether Duggan can expand his appeal outside Detroit and sustain ad spending long term.
- How Democrats balance base‑mobilizing anti‑Trump messaging with broader affordability themes.
- Donor patterns: influence of pro‑Trump contributors to Duggan’s effort versus his Democratic backers.
- Polling shifts if Duggan steps aside or if he consolidates more support from independents and moderates.
This race will be closely watched nationally: Michigan’s outcome could reshape the 2026 map and offer a test of whether a high‑profile independent can upset the two‑party calculus in a key swing state.
Originally published on NBCNews.com; reporting summarized and edited for clarity.
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