Fraud Probe and ICE Shooting Upend 2026 Races in Blue-Leaning Minnesota

Just days into 2026, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz surprised the state by announcing he would not seek a third term, saying he needed to focus on a growing welfare fraud investigation. Two days later, a 37-year-old woman, Renee Nicole Good, was fatally shot by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis — a death that sparked protests, intense political debate and an expanded federal law enforcement presence.

National Spotlight and Political Fallout

Those back-to-back crises thrust Minnesota into the national spotlight at the start of a pivotal election year. With both the governor’s seat and a U.S. Senate seat open — Sen. Tina Smith has also said she will not seek reelection in 2026 — the state’s competitive races have suddenly become far less predictable.

The Fraud Probe

A focal point for Republicans and the Trump administration is a Justice Department investigation tied to an alleged $250 million fraud scheme connected to the nonprofit Feeding Our Future. Dozens of people were indicted in 2022. In recent weeks conservative commentators have amplified additional, unproven claims related to the case, and national Republicans have used the controversy to push a broader narrative about misuse of state resources.

The ICE Shooting And Aftermath

The fatal shooting in Minneapolis ignited protests and sharply differing responses. The Trump administration defended the ICE officer’s actions as self-defense, while state and local officials strongly disputed that characterization. President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act if unrest escalated, further raising tensions and fueling debate about federal intervention in Democratic-led cities.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is not seeking a third term. (Stephen Maturen / Getty Images file)(Stephen Maturen)

How The Races Are Shaping Up

Republicans see an opening in a state they have not carried statewide in two decades, arguing the fraud controversy undermines long-standing Democratic control. Minnesota GOP Chair Alex Plechash and other party operatives say the developments give Republican candidates momentum.

At least a dozen Republicans entered the governor’s race before Walz’s decision. Leading figures include former state Sen. Scott Jensen and state House Speaker Lisa Demuth; MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell is also running. On the Senate side, potential Republican contenders include former state GOP Chair David Hann, former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and former basketball player Royce White, whose candidacy has been controversial due to inflammatory past statements.

Democrats are weighing high-profile candidates to blunt those attacks. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is reportedly seriously considering a run for governor, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig are prominent names in the open Senate primary. Democratic strategists say strong nominees could shift the dynamics and force the campaign discussion away from the scandals.

What’s At Stake

Short term: Control of Minnesota’s governor and U.S. Senate seats in 2026.

Long term: Political momentum heading into 2028 and the ability of each party to build organizing capacity in a key Midwestern state.

Both parties are adjusting messages: Republicans emphasize fraud, fiscal responsibility and law-and-order themes tied to the ICE unrest; Democrats are preparing to respond aggressively on the fraud allegations while defending civil liberties and local authority in Minneapolis. How voters respond to these competing narratives will play a decisive role in Minnesota’s competitive midterm contests.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com and has been edited for clarity, structure and readability.