Analysts Question Burkina Faso Junta’s Claim of Foiled Assassination Plot Against Captain Ibrahim Traore

Burkina Faso's military government says it thwarted an assassination plot targeting its leader, Captain Ibrahim Traore, that was allegedly to be carried out on January 3. State television broadcast four consecutive nights of what it described as confessions by the suspected plotters, while the junta blamed ex-leader Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba and accused neighbouring Ivory Coast of financing the scheme.

Allegations Laid Out by the Junta

According to the security minister, the plot's mastermind was former lieutenant-colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, who is currently in exile in Togo. Damiba led the January 2022 coup that removed President Roch Marc Christian Kabore and was himself toppled eight months later by the coup that brought Traore to power.

The military said the plan involved a series of targeted assassinations of civilian and military officials beginning with the "neutralisation" of Captain Traore. Several alleged suspects were paraded on state TV. Among them, a man identified as businessman Mady Sakande said he travelled to Ivory Coast to collect funds; Army Captain Prosper Couldiati purportedly said he was assigned to target the commander of the Sapone drone base; and Sergeant First Class Salfo Yalweogo of the Republican Guard said he had been contacted to mobilise men.

Why Many Observers Are Skeptical

Analysts and local journalists have raised doubts about the credibility of the junta's claims. Critics point out that previous announcements of foiled coups in Burkina Faso have not resulted in public trials or convictions. A Burkinabe political analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, described a pattern of increasingly implausible scenarios and inconsistent figures for alleged funding—this time reported as 70 million CFA francs (about $120,000), compared with earlier claims of sums exceeding five billion CFA.

"It's the same every time: they announce they've foiled a coup d'etat, and each scenario is more unbelievable than the last," the analyst said.

Experts also note the junta's prior use of disinformation tactics. Last year, pro-junta supporters circulated viral AI-generated clips that falsely showed global celebrities praising Traore. Nina Wilen, head of the Africa programme at the Egmont Institute, described the latest allegation as "very improbable," and warned that disinformation is widespread in Burkina Faso.

Wider Context and Implications

Observers say repeated announcements of foiled plots can serve to rally domestic support for the regime, but risk eroding credibility if claims are perceived as staged. Burkina Faso faces a persistent jihadist insurgency and chronic political instability: had the alleged plot succeeded, it would have amounted to the country's third coup in four years. Independent verification of the junta's latest claims remains limited, and no public trials or convictions have been reported to substantiate previous allegations.

Note: This report summarises competing claims and public statements; independent confirmation of the alleged plot and its financing has not been made available.