‘Only a Miracle Can End This Nightmare’: Eritreans Fear Renewed War With Ethiopia

Asmara, Eritrea — Many Eritreans say they are bracing for the prospect of another devastating conflict with neighbouring Ethiopia, recalling the heavy human cost of past wars. Veterans and exiles describe waves of young people trying to flee, while residents fear the return of mass conscription and renewed frontline bloodshed.

‘If the war starts…’

'If the war starts, many people will go to the front and, as before, many children will lose their fathers, mothers will lose their husbands, parents will lose their children,'

The quote comes from Tewolde, a man in his 40s who has fought for Eritrea several times and now lives in the capital, Asmara. He gave a false name to protect himself in a country where independent reporting and witness testimony are extremely difficult to obtain. Reporters relayed questions and answers through an intermediary to secure his account.

Incessant Aggression

Eritrea, a country of roughly 3.5 million people, has been governed by President Isaias Afwerki since independence from Ethiopia in 1993. International rights groups consistently rank Eritrea near the bottom of global indices. The government enforces long-term military conscription and a national service programme the United Nations has compared to forced labour.

Relations with Ethiopia remain volatile. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for a peace deal with Eritrea, yet the two governments later cooperated in the brutal 2020–2022 campaign against forces in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Eritrea has voiced anger that Ethiopia negotiated peace without its full involvement and has accused Addis Ababa of plotting to seize the strategic Red Sea port of Assab. Ethiopia, in turn, says Eritrea has been preparing for further hostilities; Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos warned last month that 'Eritrean aggression and provocation is making further restraint more and more difficult.'

Fleeing En Masse

Younger Eritreans report trying to escape ahead of any renewed mobilisation. Mehari, in his 30s and a veteran of the Tigray campaign, told reporters many young people are already fleeing 'en masse' to Ethiopia and Sudan to avoid conscription and possible frontline duty. Another exile, Luwan, said a relative was summoned to a meeting and warned to 'prepare herself, her sons and daughters' because of threats she was told would come from Abiy. She added that some mothers who still do not know the fate of relatives lost in the last Tigray conflict are being asked to send remaining children to the front.

Accusations of serious abuses during the Tigray war — including allegations against Eritrean forces — remain part of the broader context, deepening fear and distrust on both sides. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel did not respond to requests for comment.

Mohamed Kheir Omer, a former independence activist now living in exile, summed up the dilemma many Eritreans face: they feel torn between a government accused of repressing its own people and a neighbouring leader accused of pursuing his own legacy. For many civilians, the prospect of renewed fighting feels intolerable. 'Only a miracle can end this nightmare,' Luwan said.

Context and verification: Independent verification of many claims is difficult because of Eritrea’s tightly controlled information environment and risks to witnesses. The article reflects testimony gathered via intermediaries and public statements from officials on both sides.