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Trump’s Top Pollster: New Survey Signals Big Trouble for GOP Ahead of 2026 Midterms

The McLaughlin & Associates poll of 1,000 likely voters shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 45%–44% and ahead with independents (42%–26%), Hispanics (48%–36%), suburban voters (46%–43%) and women (50%–38%). Economic concerns — with only 49% saying the U.S. is not in a recession and 41% struggling financially — may be driving the shift. With narrow Republican majorities in both chambers, the poll signals meaningful risk for the GOP, though the McLaughlin brothers say there is still time to reverse course.

12:43 PM, 11/28/2025Politics
Trump’s Top Pollster: New Survey Signals Big Trouble for GOP Ahead of 2026 Midterms

A new McLaughlin & Associates survey, authored by pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin, warns that Republicans are losing ground with key swing voters — a development that could jeopardize the party’s narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 45% to 44%, marking the first time McLaughlin & Associates has shown Democrats ahead since 2024. The survey highlights notable Democratic advantages among several important groups that helped decide past elections.

Key findings

  • Independents: Democrats 42% — Republicans 26%
  • Hispanic voters: Democrats 48% — Republicans 36%
  • Suburban voters: Democrats 46% — Republicans 43%
  • Women: Democrats 50% — Republicans 38%

The poll also found shifting economic perceptions: only 49% of respondents now say the U.S. is not in a recession, down from 58% in August, and 41% report they are struggling to make ends meet. Those conditions could be contributing to Democratic gains among voters for whom pocketbook issues are decisive.

Republicans currently hold a slim House majority — 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, plus three vacant seats — and a narrow Senate margin at 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with Democrats. With such tight margins, even modest shifts in voter preferences could change control of one or both chambers.

"If Republicans need around 60 million votes in 2026 to retake the House, there are more than enough Trump voters to do it," the McLaughlin brothers write. "But as of 2025, the 75 million Harris voters appear more energized. That must change. And there is time to change it."

While the authors emphasize there is still time for the GOP to regroup, the survey underscores the political risk posed by weakening support among independents, women, Hispanics and suburban voters — groups that have frequently decided close midterm contests.

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