China's Travel Advisory Strikes Japan's Recovery — Tourism, Trade and Culture at Risk

Just days after Beijing issued a travel advisory urging citizens to avoid Japan, cancellations began to ripple through Tokyo’s tourism sector and beyond. Small businesses that had been rebuilding after the pandemic faced an immediate shock: a tearoom in Asakusa lost roughly 200 bookings, a hotel reported more than 2,000 no-shows, and tour operators counted hundreds of canceled trips.

What triggered the response

The measures come after comments by Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, suggesting Japan’s military could respond if China acted against Taiwan. Beijing has signaled its displeasure through a familiar toolkit of economic pressure and public admonishment — a playbook previously used against Australia, the Philippines and others.

Immediate economic and cultural fallout

Economists point to potential real costs. Takahide Kiuchi of Nomura Research Institute estimates the travel advisory could cost Japan roughly ¥1.8 trillion (about $11.5 billion) and shave around 0.3 percentage points off annual growth, based on parallels with the 2012 dispute between the two countries.

Beyond tourism, disruptions have spread to cultural and commercial arenas. Two Japanese film releases in China were postponed, a Shanghai comedy festival canceled performances by a Japanese entertainment company, and a book publisher suspended plans to import a Japanese comic. Reports about the resumption of Japanese seafood exports remain unclear as Tokyo and Beijing dispute technical details.

How people and businesses are reacting

Responses among Chinese travelers are mixed. Some, like Kyren Zhu, canceled planned trips after family warnings, while others traveled without incident. Entrepreneurs who invested in Japan are anxious: Livia Du, who opened a ski lodge in Hokkaido with more than 2 million yuan in savings, saw a couple of cancellations but also replacements as other visitors booked.

Many cancellations reflect political pressure as much as individual choice. "Some customers said they felt obliged to align with China’s position," Du said. One guest reportedly works at a state-owned company and said staff had been instructed not to visit Japan for the time being.

Signals and possible escalation

Beijing has warned it may take additional measures if Tokyo does not change course. "China’s countermeasures are all kept secret and will be rolled out one by one," said Liu Jiangyong, an international relations professor at Tsinghua University. "Everything is possible, because this involves the core of the nation’s core interests."

"Japan should first retract its erroneous remarks and take concrete actions to maintain the political foundation of China-Japan relations," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning. "Otherwise, China will have to take further measures."

Historical pattern and political dynamics

Analysts note a recurring pattern: countries often stand firm and endure economic pain, allowing disputes to fester until a political change or behind-the-scenes negotiation eases tensions. "The diplomatic challenge for both sides is that they have their own domestic audiences and so they don’t want to be perceived as backing down," said Sheila A. Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Past examples include Australia’s gradual normalization of trade with China after a change in government, and similar recalibrations elsewhere when new political leaders took office.

What to watch next

Observers will be watching whether Beijing expands restrictions to sectors such as seafood imports or rare-earth exports, which have strategic significance for many industries. For now, the impact is most visible in tourism and cultural exchange — areas that recover slowly and can have lasting consequences for local businesses and regional ties.

Sources and spokespeople quoted in this piece: Liu Jiangyong, Sheila A. Smith, Takahide Kiuchi, Nana Enomoto, Kyren Zhu, Livia Du, Mao Ning.