Turkey Shortage Drives Wholesale Prices Up — Retailers Pull Out Deals to Protect Thanksgiving Budgets

Bird diseases this year have cut the U.S. turkey flock to a 40-year low, sending wholesale turkey prices sharply higher even as many retailers run promotions to shield shoppers. Small producers and consumers are adjusting — and other Thanksgiving items face pressure from tariffs and weather-related crop disruptions.

Disease and supply squeeze

Avian influenza and avian metapneumovirus have reduced the national turkey population, killing more than 2 million birds in recent months. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates wholesale turkey prices will climb roughly 44% this year. Hatcheries have fewer chicks available, forcing farmers to place orders far in advance.

Retail response: promotions and mixed price signals

Despite the wholesale surge, many stores are offering aggressive promotions — loss-leader discounts and even free-turkey offers — to draw customers. Market tracker Datasembly reported that, as of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples (including a 10-pound frozen turkey, potatoes, boxed stuffing and canned sides) cost $58.81, up 4.1% year-over-year.

Other measures vary: the American Farm Bureau Federation estimated a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 at about $55.16 (roughly 5% less than last year), while a Wells Fargo analysis using September NielsenIQ data put a store-brand meal for 10 near $80, slightly below last year’s estimate. These differences reflect varied methodologies, timing and product mixes.

Grocery package examples

Discount grocers and large chains are promoting budget meals to attract shoppers — for example, a $40, 21-item meal for 10 advertised by one discount chain and another grocery's claim that a store-brand menu can feed 10 people for under $50. Such promotions help blunt sticker shock at the register even as wholesale costs climb.

Wholesale market trends

Wholesale frozen hens (8–16 pounds) averaged about $1.77 per pound in mid-November — up more than 80% from a year earlier, according to a poultry market tracker. Avian viruses are the principal cause, and increased consumer demand for turkey (as pricier beef and other meats push shoppers toward alternatives) has added upward pressure on prices.

Tariffs, weather and canned goods

Tariffs on imported steel and aluminum have raised production costs for canned and packaged goods, with estimates that companies passing on tariff costs increase can prices by roughly $0.10 to $0.40 each. Weather also played a role: cranberry production is expected to be down about 9% this year, contributing to large year-over-year price jumps for some cranberry products, while dry conditions in Midwestern pumpkin-growing regions helped reduce disease and yielded slightly lower canned pumpkin prices.

On the farm

At a small family farm west of Detroit, farmer Larry Doll avoided recent avian outbreaks and raised 92 turkeys this season, selling them for $6.50 per pound. He described keeping his operation clean and limiting outside contact as key steps to prevent disease. Doll plans to order additional poults early to ensure future supply — underscoring how producers are adapting to a tight market.

What shoppers can do

Shoppers facing higher holiday food costs can compare store promotions, consider store brands or bundled meal packages, or substitute less-expensive cuts and side-dish options. For many households, promotions and smart shopping will help keep Thanksgiving manageable despite higher wholesale prices.