Summary: December BLS data show the "food at home" index rose 0.7% — the largest monthly increase since August 2022 — while dining-out costs climbed by a similar amount. Year-over-year grocery prices were up about 2.4%, with staples like coffee (+20%), beef (+16%) and candy (+10%) seeing much larger increases. Despite these official figures, President Trump said grocery prices are "starting to go rapidly down," a claim that contradicts the administration's own data and risks undermining his credibility with everyday shoppers.
Trump Picks the Wrong Moment to Claim Grocery Prices Are Falling
Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data show grocery prices are rising — not falling — making President Donald Trump’s public claim that they are “starting to go rapidly down” starkly at odds with official figures.
The BLS reported that the "food at home" index rose 0.7% in December, the largest single-month gain since the inflation peak in August 2022. Prices for dining out (tracked as "food away from home") climbed by a similar amount, the biggest monthly increase in three years. On a year-over-year basis, grocery prices were roughly 2.4% higher in December.
That aggregate number masks much larger jumps for specific staples over the past 12 months: coffee is up about 20%, beef roughly 16%, and candy near 10%.
Those BLS figures were released by the administration on Wednesday morning. A few hours later, speaking in Detroit about the economy, the president said:
A resident carries grocery bags on Oct. 31, 2025 in NY.(Adam Gray / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
"Grocery prices are starting to go rapidly down."
About a month after Election Day, Mr. Trump told NBC’s Meet the Press, "I won on groceries," and vowed that his incoming team would bring food prices "way down." More than a year after that pledge, he continues to insist publicly that he has delivered — despite the latest data showing otherwise.
This particular claim is politically risky because grocery shopping is a frequent, everyday experience for most Americans. Consumers see price changes directly at the checkout, making blanket assertions that prices are falling easy to check and widely disbelieved when they contradict lived experience.
Rather than acknowledge the gap between his promise and current trends or express empathy for frustrated shoppers, the president has urged consumers to dismiss what they see in stores — a stance that risks further eroding credibility on an issue voters encounter daily.
Note: This article updates earlier coverage and is based on BLS data reported by Axios and subsequent remarks by the president.
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