UNDP: Mass Returns Push Afghanistan’s Fragile Communities to the Brink

UNDP: Returnees Intensify Humanitarian Crisis in Afghanistan

The return of millions of Afghans to their homeland is placing extraordinary strain on communities that were already struggling, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warns. In areas with high levels of return, nine in 10 families now face hunger, mounting debt or are selling possessions to survive.

A UNDP survey released Wednesday found that roughly 2.3 million Afghans have returned so far this year—many expelled from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan—and that these movements have "sharply intensified pressure on already fragile systems." The assessment, carried out in July and August, covered 48,711 households across all 34 provinces, including just over 1,500 returnee families.

The report said Afghanistan was already weakened by decades of conflict, recent earthquakes, climate shocks and an economic downturn. The arrival of large numbers of returnees has increased competition for jobs, water and housing, further straining social cohesion and local services.

"Afghanistan’s returnee and host communities are under immense strain," said Kanni Wignaraja, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP regional director for Asia and the Pacific. "In some provinces one in four households depend on women as the main breadwinner, so when women are prevented from working, families, communities, the country lose out."

Women and girls have been disproportionately affected by restrictions introduced by the Taliban-led government, which limit their movement and bar them from most jobs and from secondary and university education. In provinces where many households rely on female earners, these bans deepen households' vulnerability and erode community resilience.

The report also noted larger migration trends: more than 4.5 million people have returned to Afghanistan since September 2023, increasing the country’s population by about 10%. These mass returns have occurred amid declining aid, weakened institutions after years of conflict, and recurrent climate shocks.

More than half of returning families reported foregoing medical care in order to afford food. Access to clean water is worsening as communities increasingly rely on seasonal rivers, shallow wells or springs. Natural disasters have compounded the crisis: a major earthquake and aftershocks in eastern Afghanistan in August killed more than 2,200 people and affected approximately 1 million people, destroying over 8,300 homes. Another quake in northern Afghanistan earlier this month killed 27 people and injured nearly 1,000.

The UNDP cautioned that overlapping stresses—chronic poverty, large-scale returns, climate and seismic shocks, declining aid, and gender-based exclusion—have created a "perfect storm" that is eroding social cohesion and undermining local capacity to cope.

Recommendations: The report calls for urgent international diplomatic engagement and accelerated humanitarian and development assistance to stabilise return areas, support basic services (food, water, health), and protect the rights and livelihoods of women and girls. Without rapid action, the UNDP warns, conditions in areas of return could entrench displacement and trigger fresh waves of migration, with implications for regional stability.

Reporting contributed by the Associated Press and the UNDP survey team.