The Nov. 3, 2026 midterms will decide control of Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency and many state offices. Affordability leads voter concerns — inflation was 3.4% in August and groceries, gas and utilities rank high on surveys. Other major factors shaping the vote include the Iran conflict, immigration, ethics questions around the president and growing concerns about AI and data centers. Culture-war issues such as transgender rights and health care remain important mobilizers for parts of both parties.
US Midterms 2026: Five Issues That Could Tip Control Of Congress
Donald Trump has touted big progress on the economy, although the reality is that Americans are paying more for gasoline, housing and groceries under his presidency (Brendan SMIALOWSKI)
Americans voting on November 3, 2026 will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency, while also choosing dozens of governors and thousands of state and local officials. The campaign season is unfolding against a combustible mix of economic anxiety, overseas conflict, immigration debates, ethics concerns and rapidly expanding artificial intelligence.
Why These Midterms Matter
Polls use different methods but consistently show pocketbook concerns at the top of voters' lists. Still, foreign policy, immigration, questions about presidential ethics and the rise of AI are all shaping voters' choices in important ways.
1. It's the Economy
Affordability is the dominant issue. Inflation was 3.4% in August, but many voters feel the pinch in day-to-day items: gasoline, housing, electricity, groceries and borrowing costs. A Pew survey found 29% of voters spontaneously named an economic concern as the top issue they wanted congressional candidates to address — more than three times any other category. A Joseph Rainey Center poll found 57% placed groceries, gas or utilities among their top three concerns.
Tariffs enacted by the administration feed into this debate: critics say tariffs raise consumer prices, while proponents argue they protect US industry and generate revenue.
2. The Iran Conflict
The war with Iran, which began in February, has pushed energy costs higher and become an increasingly significant domestic issue. Emerson's September survey rated the Iran war the top concern among the issues it tested, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll found only 34% approved of President Trump's handling of the conflict. In several competitive races, Republican candidates have called for ending the fighting, and four Republican senators joined Democrats in a September vote seeking to rein it in.
3. Immigration
Immigration — previously a strong pillar of Trump's political appeal — has grown more complicated. Aggressive enforcement tactics have generated controversy and eroded support among some voters. Reuters/Ipsos found 55% disapproved of Trump's handling of immigration, while a Marist poll showed Democrats and Republicans essentially tied on which party voters trusted more on the issue, a notable shift from 2024. In competitive House districts, 62% of Latino voters disapproved of the administration's deportation and enforcement approach.
4. Trump, Money and Power
The president himself is a central factor. Trump has asked supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot, making these midterms partly a referendum on his presidency and a prospective second term. Government ethics ranked second behind the economy in Pew's open-ended survey, cited by 9% of respondents. A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll found 97% of Americans think there is at least some corruption in the federal government, and 66% said they had little or no trust in Trump to avoid using the presidency to benefit his family's businesses. Democrats have pledged investigations if they regain subpoena power; Republicans dismiss many allegations as partisan.
5. AI Comes to Town
Artificial intelligence has leapt from labs to the campaign trail. Voters worry about job displacement, safety, regulation and the infrastructure required to run advanced AI. Nearly half of Americans told Pew they were very concerned about AI's economic impact; 50% said data centers are mostly bad for household energy costs and 54% said they are bad for the environment. AI regulation scored highly in Emerson's September survey, just behind immigration and gas prices. While data centers ranked lower nationally, they have become local flashpoints — particularly in states such as Ohio, where communities contest their impacts on electricity, water and construction. In Congress's final pre-election days some lawmakers even argued over who should pay the electricity bills for these facilities.
Other Fault Lines
Traditional culture-war topics remain mobilizing issues for parts of both parties. Debates over transgender rights — especially participation in women's sports — and perennial questions about health care (insurance costs, prescription-drug prices and access) continue to energize voters, even if they have played a smaller role in the national narrative than affordability, the Iran conflict or immigration.
What to Watch: Voter turnout, swings among Latino and suburban voters, energy prices, and local fights over AI infrastructure could all determine which party controls Congress after November 3.
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