Republican former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz captured much of the GOP's midterm messaging this week when he responded to a voter who said they were voting Democratic for the first time. On X, Gaetz said, "I hate the war too. But the Democrats want to trans your kids."
That exchange highlights how the Republican playbook — emphasizing transgender policies, immigration and crime — remains central to the party's campaign strategy. But fresh polling suggests those issues are not matching voters' top concerns as the economy dominates the conversation.
Transgender Policy: A Narrow Advantage, Low Salience
A new CNN poll finds registered voters give the GOP a slight edge on transgender policy, 37% to 32%. Yet just 25% of respondents called transgender policy "extremely important" to their vote — the lowest rating among 11 issues tested and well behind healthcare, voting access and abortion.
Earlier CNN polling in July found similar ambivalence among independents: 35% said Democrats were too focused on transgender issues, while 31% said the same about Republicans. Democrats have largely moderated their public rhetoric since 2024, moving closer to the center on questions such as children's sports participation, and some campaigns are running ads to clarify their positions.
Even within the GOP base the issue has limited intensity: 34% of Republicans say transgender policy is "extremely important" to their vote, compared with 29% of Democrats — a margin that suggests the topic can help turnout but is unlikely to be decisive alone.
Immigration: More Salient — And More Bipartisan
Immigration remains a centerpiece of Republican messaging. The CNN poll shows 50% of voters now call immigration "extremely important" to their vote, a rise from prior midterms. But that increase reflects growing concern among Democrats as well: in 2022 Republicans were 65% to 30% more likely than Democrats to rate immigration as extremely important; today the gap has narrowed to roughly 60% of Republicans versus 50% of Democrats.
The same CNN survey gives Republicans a modest 41%–36% edge on immigration, though other polls show different results. Paradoxically, the recent slowdown in illegal crossings — an outcome the administration highlights — may have reduced urgency for some voters even as the issue itself draws more attention.
Culture Attacks Have Limited Reach
Republicans have also tried to leverage cultural targets such as left-leaning streamer Hasan Piker to criticize Democratic candidates. A New York Times–Siena College poll in Michigan found Piker is unpopular among those who know him, but most voters are unfamiliar: 54% said they had not heard of him and roughly 6 in 10 had no opinion. Only 13% of independents offered any opinion, suggesting this line of attack has limited reach beyond politically engaged audiences.
The Overriding Issue: The Economy
Above all, the economy dwarfs other topics. The CNN poll shows 68% of registered voters call the economy "extremely important" to their vote — near the high-water mark seen in the 2022 midterms and far above typical levels in other recent cycles. Historically an advantage for Republicans, the economy currently favors Democrats: President Trump posts a 73% disapproval rating on how he's handling the economy and an 80% disapproval rating on inflation in this poll, giving Democrats about a seven-point edge on the issue.
Republican strategists are investing heavily in themes beyond pocketbook concerns, but the data suggest those efforts are struggling to shift overall voter priorities while the economy remains top of mind.
Methodological note: The figures cited are from recent CNN and New York Times–Siena College polls as described above. Where multiple surveys report differing margins, that variation is noted in the text.
