Key takeaway: CNN analyst Harry Enten says a James Talarico victory in Texas would raise Democrats' odds of winning the U.S. Senate to about 78%. Enten labels Texas the pivotal fourth seat Democrats need and gives Talarico roughly a 70% chance based on his polling aggregation. Recent polls and a huge ad-spend advantage — roughly $31 million to Paxton's $352,000 — underpin Enten's assessment.
Harry Enten: A Talarico Win In Texas Would Give Democrats A 78% Chance To Flip The Senate
CNN Data Guru Harry Enten Says a James Talarico Victory Would Make Dems Huge Favorites to Flip Senate
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten says the path to Democratic control of the U.S. Senate is clear: flip Texas, and the balance of power likely shifts to the Democrats. Enten told viewers in a Sunday segment that Democrats' chances of taking the Senate have been "going up like a rocket," and he attributes much of that rise to progressive Texas candidate James Talarico (D).
Texas: The Pivotal Fourth Seat
Enten explained that Texas is now the single most consequential seat for determining Senate control. "What if James Talarico actually does the impossible and turns Texas blue?" Enten asked. "Well, if James Talarico actually wins in Texas, get this, he gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the United States Senate." He emphasized that Democrats need to flip four seats overall, and Texas ranks as the fourth-most likely seat to flip.
"The most likely seat to determine control of the United States Senate? It's Texas. Because Democrats need to flip four seats — they need to flip four seats! — and guess which seat is number four most likely to flip? It's Texas." — Harry Enten
On-screen, Enten showed his polling aggregation and put Talarico's odds at roughly 70% to win the Texas race.
Polling, Ads and Fundraising
Recent polls have not been favorable for Attorney General Ken Paxton, including a New York Times survey showing Talarico up by six points. Enten also highlighted a striking disparity in ad spending: Talarico has spent about $31 million on ads, while Paxton has spent roughly $352,000. To underline the urgency, Enten jokingly produced an old-fashioned landline and suggested Paxton needs to start calling donors immediately to close the gap.
Paxton has faced public-relations challenges beyond the numbers. Leaked audio captured him saying the first Republican midterm convention hosted by former President Donald Trump hurt GOP polling. "To be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers," Paxton said in the recording.
Adding to the political drama, Texas state senator Angela Paxton — the attorney general's soon-to-be-ex-wife — released an ad urging voters to back the entire Republican ticket. "Let's talk about the elephant in the room: In a general election, it's not as much about the individual players on the team. It's about getting the whole team across the finish line," she said without naming Ken Paxton directly.
What It Would Mean
Enten's analysis frames Texas as the most consequential Senate battleground this cycle. If Talarico flips Texas, Enten argues, Democrats would move from a competitive position to being heavy favorites to seize control of the Senate — a development with major implications for the 2025 legislative agenda and control of Senate committees.
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