CNT/MDA polling shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 43.1% to 38% in a first-round projection ahead of Sunday’s vote. On projected valid votes, which exclude blank or void ballots, Lula rises to 47.8% versus Bolsonaro's 42.1%. In a likely October 25 runoff the poll gives Lula 47.3% to Bolsonaro's 43.1%. The survey interviewed 2,007 people from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points.
Lula’s Lead Narrows Ahead Of Brazil Vote, CNT/MDA Poll Shows
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) greets people during a campaign rally, one day before the general election, in Santa Barbara do Oeste, Brazil, October 3, 2026. REUTERS/Alexandre Meneghini
SAO PAULO, Oct 3 (Reuters) — A new CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva retaining a lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro as Brazil heads into Sunday's first-round vote, but the gap has tightened and the race looks closer if it goes to a runoff.
Poll Results
In a first-round projection, Lula received 43.1% of voter support, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro at 38%. Other candidates trailed far behind: Augusto Cury 3.2%, Ronaldo Caiado 3% and Renan Santos 1.5%.
Valid Votes And Runoff Scenario
When the poll considered only projected valid votes (excluding those who said they would cast blank or void ballots), Lula rose to 47.8% versus Bolsonaro's 42.1%. If no candidate surpasses 50% of valid votes in Sunday's first round, the top two finishers would advance to a runoff on October 25. In that likely runoff matchup the poll put Lula at 47.3% and Bolsonaro at 43.1%.
Brazilian President and Workers' Party (PT) candidate for reelection Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a campaign rally, ahead of the general election, in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, October 2, 2026. REUTERS/Washington Alves
Trends And Methodology
The poll shows a notable tightening since a September 15 survey, which had Lula at 40.5% and Bolsonaro at 30.4%, while Augusto Cury stood at 6%. The previous CNT/MDA runoff projection had Lula leading 47.3% to 40%.
MDA interviewed 2,007 people between September 30 and October 2. The poll's margin of error is ±2.2 percentage points.
Reporting by Eduardo Simoes and Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Alison Williams.
The results suggest a more competitive closing stretch of the campaign, with Bolsonaro gaining ground since mid-September and the possibility that undecided or blank-vote shifts could decide whether the contest ends in a single round or proceeds to a runoff.
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