One Month Before Midterms: Trump Underwater In 39 States With National Net Approval Of -26

With roughly one month until the November midterm elections, new Civiqs polling shows President Donald Trump with a national net approval of -26, and negative ratings in 39 states, including every major battleground.

Polling And Methods

The figures come from Civiqs' rolling online tracker and are based on 133,869 responses from registered voters collected between January 20, 2025, and October 2, 2026. Net approval is calculated as the share who approve minus those who disapprove.

National Snapshot

Nationally, 34% of respondents approve of Trump's job performance and 60% disapprove, yielding a net approval of -26 percentage points. That negative balance is reflected across many competitive states that will decide control of Congress on November 3.

Key Battlegrounds

Every major swing state in the tracker is in negative territory. Latest net approvals include:

• Georgia: -25
• Michigan: -24
• Nevada: -24
• Pennsylvania: -22
• Arizona: -18
• Florida: -16
• North Carolina: -15
• Ohio: -17
• Wisconsin: -18

Where Trump Still Posts Positives

Trump's remaining positive nets are concentrated in reliably Republican states. The strongest are Wyoming (+18), North Dakota (+15) and West Virginia (+12). Others in positive territory include Arkansas (+9), Idaho (+8) and Alabama (+6). Montana is effectively tied at 0 (46% approve, 46% disapprove).

Declines Since January 2025

Trump's net approval has fallen in every state since he began his second term. The steepest drops include:

• Kentucky: +23 to -10 (down 33 points)
• Wyoming: +47 to +18 (down 29 points)
• Oklahoma: +31 to +4 (down 27 points)
• Tennessee: +25 to -2 (down 27 points)
• Texas: +6 to -21 (down 27 points)
• Nevada: 0 to -24 (down 24 points)

Demographic Breakdowns

National demographic splits help explain the state map:

• Young voters (18–34): 20% approve, 73% disapprove (net -53)
• Voters 35–49: 26% approve, 66% disapprove
• Voters 50–64: 44% approve, 51% disapprove
• Voters 65+: 44% approve, 52% disapprove
• Independents: 27% approve, 65% disapprove
• Republicans: 78% approve, 12% disapprove
• Women: 29% approve, 65% disapprove; Men: 39% approve, 54% disapprove
• By education: Postgraduates 24% approve; College grads 32%; Non-college grads 37% (disapproval exceeds approval in all groups)
• By race/ethnicity: Black voters 7% approve/90% disapprove; Hispanic voters 26% approve/70% disapprove; White voters 41% approve/52% disapprove

Where Trump's Ratings Are Weakest

Deep-blue states show the lowest nets: Hawaii (-58), Maryland (-52), Vermont (-51), California and Massachusetts (both -47), Connecticut (-46), Washington (-42), New York (-39), Oregon and Rhode Island (-38).

Implications And Response

Presidential approval is not a direct forecast of congressional outcomes, but it shapes the political environment, including turnout, messaging and the dynamics of close races. The White House has downplayed polling significance and pointed to Trump's 2024 election victory as evidence of public support. Spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasized the administration's focus on jobs, reducing inflation and improving housing affordability, and called the 2024 vote the "ultimate poll."

Newsweek sought comment from the White House. This story used reporting and editorial input from Newsweek staff and the outlet's AI assistant to compile the analysis.

Explore the interactive map to view Trump’s net approval rating in every state one month before the midterms.