Datafolha's latest survey shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 46% to 44% in a hypothetical October runoff — a margin within the poll's ±2 percentage-point error and therefore a technical tie. In first-round projections, Lula stands at 39% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 36%, with other candidates trailing. The poll surveyed 2,002 respondents between Sept. 15 and 17, underscoring a tightly contested race heading into the runoff possibility.
Datafolha Poll: Lula Holds Narrow 46%–44% Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro, Race Remains A Technical Tie
FILE PHOTO: Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a ceremony of social welfare program "Bolsa Familia" (Family Allowance) at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, March 2, 2023. REUTERS/Adriano Machado/File Photo
Datafolha's latest poll published on Sept. 17 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a slim numerical lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical October runoff, but the gap falls within the survey's margin of error and effectively constitutes a technical tie.
Poll Findings
In a direct runoff projection, Lula registered 46% support versus 44% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro — figures unchanged from Datafolha's previous survey released on Sept. 11. With a reported margin of error of ±2 percentage points, Datafolha characterized the result as a statistical tie, signaling a tightly contested race heading into October.
First-Round Projection
In a first-round scenario, Lula led with 39% against 36% for Flavio Bolsonaro. Other candidates polled in single digits: Augusto Cury 6%, Ronaldo Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 3% and Romeu Zema 2%.
Methodology And Context
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between Sept. 15 and 17. Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two finishers advance to a runoff to decide the presidency. The closeness of the poll highlights a competitive contest and suggests the outcome could hinge on voter turnout and last-minute shifts.
Reporting note: Poll results as published by Datafolha and reported by Reuters.
Help us improve.
