A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff, 46% to 45%, a difference within the survey's ±2 percentage-point margin of error. First-round projections place Lula at 40% and Bolsonaro at 37%, with several other candidates trailing. If no contender secures over 50% on Oct. 4, the two frontrunners would meet in a runoff on Oct. 25. The survey sampled 2,006 voters Sept. 18–20.
BTG/Nexus Poll: Lula Narrowly Leads Bolsonaro 46%–45% In Simulated Runoff
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a candidate for reelection for the Workers' Party (PT), speaks at a campaign rally in Brasilia, Brazil, September 16, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on Sept. 21 found President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated head-to-head runoff, with Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%. Because the gap falls within the survey's margin of error, the two candidates are statistically tied.
In a first-round projection, Lula received 40% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%, Augusto Cury at 6%, Ronaldo Caiado at 5% and Renan Santos at 3%. A prior BTG/Nexus survey on Sept. 14 put Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46% in a similar runoff scenario and showed Lula at 42% in first-round estimates.
Implications
If no candidate obtains more than 50% of valid votes in the Oct. 4 first round, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff scheduled for Oct. 25. Given the tight margin, the race remains competitive and could shift in the closing weeks before the election.
Poll Methodology
Nexus interviewed 2,006 respondents between Sept. 18 and Sept. 20. The poll carries a margin of error of ±2 percentage points. Results were reported by Reuters correspondents Rodrigo Viga Gaier, Michael Susin and Gabriel Araujo; editing by Isabel Teles.
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