Datafolha’s latest poll shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 47% to 45% in a simulated run-off — a margin that falls within the survey’s ±2 percentage-point error and therefore counts as a technical tie. In first-round projections, Lula leads with 40% and Bolsonaro has 36%, while other candidates remain in single digits. Two recent polls from Quaest and BTG Pactual/Nexus reported similarly tight run-off results, highlighting how competitive the race remains.
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Locked In Technical Tie, New Datafolha Poll Shows
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (left) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (right) [File: Adriano Machado/Reuters]
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a slim lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical second-round match-up ahead of October's presidential election, but the difference falls within the poll's margin of error, making the race effectively tied.
According to a Datafolha survey released Thursday, a simulated run-off would give Lula 47% of the vote versus 45% for Flavio Bolsonaro. The gap mirrors last week’s Datafolha result, which showed Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 44%.
First-Round Projection And Poll Details
In a projected first round, Datafolha places Lula at 40% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 36%, with Augusto Cury on 5%, Ronaldo Caiado on 4% and Renan Santos on 3%. The poll surveyed 2,002 respondents between September 22 and 23 and reports a margin of error of ±2 percentage points.
Note: Because the 2-point gap is within the margin of error, analysts describe the run-off numbers as a technical tie.
Other Recent Polls
Two other surveys this week produced similarly close results. A Quaest poll showed Bolsonaro narrowly ahead in a potential run-off, 42% to 41%, while a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey gave Lula 46% and Bolsonaro 45% in a simulated second round. The three polls together underscore how tightly contested the race remains.
Context
Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence related to efforts to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula. Lula is campaigning for a fourth nonconsecutive term as president. Under Brazil’s electoral rules, if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two finishers move to a run-off.
With the election months away, these polls capture a snapshot of voter preferences that could still shift as campaigns intensify and new information emerges.
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