A Datafolha poll published Sept. 11 finds President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical October runoff, 46% to 44%. The runoff numbers are unchanged from last week. In the first round, Lula leads with 39% to Flavio Bolsonaro's 35%, with Augusto Cury at 6% and Ronaldo Caiado at 4%. The survey of 2,002 respondents (Sept. 8–10) has a ±2 percentage-point margin of error, meaning the race remains tightly contested.
Datafolha Poll: Lula Holds Narrow 46%–44% Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro Ahead Of October Runoff
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends the Independence Day parade in Brasilia, Brazil, September 7, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado
SAO PAULO — A Datafolha poll released Friday shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holding a slim lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical October runoff, underscoring a tightly contested race as Brazil heads toward the presidential vote.
Key Findings
In a direct runoff matchup, Lula is projected at 46% of the vote versus 44% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Those runoff figures are unchanged from Datafolha's poll last week.
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 39% of voter intentions, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro at 35%. Other candidates include Augusto Cury at 6% and Ronaldo Caiado at 4%.
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) greets supporters during a rally in the city where his father Jair Bolsonaro was stabbed during his 2018 presidential campaign, in Juiz de Fora, Brazil, September 9, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares
By comparison, the prior poll put Lula at 38% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round, indicating small shifts but continued competitiveness.
Methodology And Context
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 respondents between September 8 and 10. The poll's margin of error is ±2 percentage points. Given the narrow runoff gap, the lead falls within or very close to that margin of error, highlighting how small shifts in voter sentiment could change the race outcome.
Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two finishers proceed to a runoff — a process that has determined the presidency in every election since 2002.
Reporting by Andre Romani; edited for clarity.
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