Governor Races To Watch: Tight Polls in Ohio, Wisconsin and Oregon Could Shift Power This Fall

As both parties battle for control of Congress, several gubernatorial contests are emerging as key indicators for November. Across the United States there are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors. RealClearPolitics currently classifies 23 governor races as leaning Democratic, 19 as leaning Republican and eight as toss-ups. This week’s polling highlights tight contests and potential flips in several battleground states.

Ohio

Recent polls show Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, the former presidential contender, trailing Democrat Amy Acton in most surveys released this week. A Marist University poll shows Acton ahead by six points, while a Suffolk University survey gives her a nine-point lead. Only a Big Data Poll has Ramaswamy up by one point — a margin within the likely error range.

Background: Acton is the former director of the Ohio Department of Health and served as chief health adviser to Gov. Mike DeWine, overseeing the state's early COVID-19 response before leaving the administration in August 2020. Ramaswamy has built his campaign on criticizing Acton’s public-health record and promising tax cuts and stronger fiscal oversight.

Context: Ohio has trended Republican in recent presidential cycles. Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012, but Donald Trump has won every presidential contest in the state since 2016, including an 11-point margin in 2024.

Wisconsin

RealClearPolitics this week moved Wisconsin’s governor’s race into the toss-up column from “Leans Dem.” A Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday found Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany within about one point among registered voters, with Crowley holding a slight edge. Among likely voters, Crowley led 49% to 46%, with 5% undecided. The RCP average currently gives Crowley a roughly 3.5-point advantage. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers is term-limited; he won the 2022 race by 3.3 points.

Oregon

Oregon — typically considered safely Democratic in statewide contests — shows an unexpectedly close race in the largest statewide OPB poll so far this cycle. The Oregon Public Broadcasting survey found Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan at 46% and incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek at 44%, with 8% undecided and 3% supporting third-party candidate Brett Smith.

Kotek has worked to link Drazan to former President Donald Trump, but the governor’s approval has weakened: 58% of respondents told OPB the state is on the wrong track, and Trump’s disapproval in Oregon is only about one point lower than Kotek’s. With a meaningful share of undecided voters, the final outcome could hinge on late decisions. Drazan previously challenged Kotek in 2022 and lost by nearly 3.5 points, a race that saw 8.6% of ballots go to third-party candidates.

National Spotlight: Florida and Texas

High-profile national Republicans have campaigned in tight contests in Florida and Texas this week. Senator J.D. Vance stumped for Rep. Byron Donalds in Florida, where the RCP average shows Donalds roughly six points ahead of former Rep. David Jolly. At a Lakeland rally Vance urged voters to back Donalds and other GOP ticket members, sharply contrasting them with their opponents.

Former President Donald Trump traveled to Texas to endorse Senate candidate Ken Paxton and incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott. The RCP average shows Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by about 2.3 points — a closer margin than Abbott’s double-digit wins in 2018 and 2022, underscoring why national figures are investing time and energy in these races.

Why It Matters

Gubernatorial outcomes will affect state policy and national political calculations, including redistricting, election administration, and how vigorously states pursue federal priorities. With several races razor-close, undecided voters could be decisive as Election Day approaches.