Recent polls show Democrats gaining ground in several key 2026 midterm contests, with Sherrod Brown leading Jon Husted 47% to 43% in Ohio. National trackers, including Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, place Democrats about nine points ahead overall. President Trump’s approval rating is near 37%, a level that historically weighs on the incumbent party in midterms. Control of the Senate remains competitive; both national and state polls will determine whether Democrats can flip the chamber.
Midterm Watch 2026: Sherrod Brown Holds 3-Point Lead In Ohio As Democrats Gain Ground
Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, speaks during a campaign rally at the Communications Workers of America Local 4370 in Brooklyn Heights, Ohio, on Saturday, October 26, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted by three points in Ohio — one of several competitive midterm contests where recent polls show Democrats making gains. Below is a state-by-state snapshot of the latest publicly reported polling and the broader national picture.
Key State Polls
Ohio: Brown 47% vs. Husted 43% — USA Today/Suffolk University (updated Sept. 30).
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48% vs. Mike Rogers (R) 44% — GBAO poll for El-Sayed’s campaign, obtained by Politico (updated Sept. 28).
Maine: Susan Collins (R) 49% vs. Troy Jackson (D) 46% — New York Times/Siena University (updated Sept. 24).
New Hampshire: Chris Pappas (D) 50% vs. John Sununu (R) 45% — New York Times/Siena University (updated Sept. 24).
Texas: James Talarico (D) 50% vs. Ken Paxton (R) 44%, 4% undecided — Marist (updated Sept. 23).
Iowa: Josh Turek (D) 50% vs. Ashley Hinson (R) 42%, 5% undecided — Marist (updated Sept. 22).
Florida: Angie Nixon (D) tied with Ashley Moody (R) 45%–45%, 7% undecided — St. Pete Polls/FloridaPolitics.com (updated Sept. 18).
Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) 45% vs. Roger Marshall (R) 43%, 8% undecided — Emerson College (updated Sept. 18).
Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) 46% vs. Dan Sullivan (R) 41% among voters 50+ — AARP poll (updated Sept. 17).
National Trends And Stakes
National trackers and multiple recent surveys show a Democratic uptick. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin estimated a roughly nine-point Democratic advantage nationwide (49.9% to 40.9%) as of the cited update, up from a smaller margin earlier in September. A New York Times/Siena poll released Sept. 15 found 51% of respondents would back the Democratic congressional candidate in their district versus 43% for the Republican.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits near 37% in the Silver Bulletin polling average, a level that — historically — has correlated with weaker midterm performance for the president’s party. Republican control of the Senate currently stands at 53–47 after the GOP flipped several seats in 2024.
Cook Political Report describes control of the Senate as a “true toss up,” though it has shifted three races toward Democrats recently. If Democrats regain one or both chambers, anticipated oversight and investigative activity would likely intensify; expected probes include inquiries into whether the presidency was used for personal enrichment. Conversely, a split Congress would limit sweeping legislative action and could significantly shape how the White House advances its agenda.
What To Watch
Watch for tightening or widening margins in the listed swing states, the handling of undecided voters in close contests, and whether national trends persist into election day. Polls are snapshots in time and subject to change as campaigns respond to events, advertising, and turnout efforts.
Note: Poll results are reported as published by their sources and reflect the dates indicated. Margins of error, sampling methods and the presence of undecided voters can affect the interpretation of close races.
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