The TPLF declared a full‑scale offensive around Mekelle this week, seizing airports and attacking federal positions, prompting panic buying, bank runs and partial internet shutdowns. Heavy clashes are reported along Tigray's borders with Afar and Amhara amid fears the 2020–2022 war could reignite. Seven rebel groups have formed an "Alliance for Survival," raising concerns the fighting could merge with conflicts in Sudan and Somalia and draw in regional powers. Analysts warn multiple active fronts, airstrikes and disrupted communications make containment difficult.
TPLF Full-Scale Offensive Around Mekelle Raises Fear of Wider War Across the Horn of Africa
Rebel fighters during the 2020 to 2022 civil war in northern Ethiopia, which left hundreds of thousands of people dead - Getty/Yasuyoshi Chiba
War has felt inevitable in the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, for months — and this week many residents say their worst fears have been confirmed. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) declared an all‑out offensive against federal forces, seizing regional airports and attacking government positions as heavy fighting erupted along borders with the Afar and Amhara regions.
Residents buy flour and other staples in Mekelle on Thursday, amid fears civil war will erupt again - Getty
What Happened
After months of skirmishes and drone strikes through the summer, the TPLF’s announcement on Tuesday marked a rapid escalation. Residents describe panic buying, long queues at banks and shops, and a partial internet shutdown reminiscent of the 2020–2022 conflict. Reports say drone strikes have wounded civilians in Mekelle; independent verification remains limited amid the communications disruptions.
A burnt out tank in northern Ethiopia in October 2024, following fierce fighting between Tigrayan rebel forces and the country's army - Getty/Michele Spatari
Human Toll and Local Response
The 2020–2022 Tigray war — followed by famine and disease — was one of the deadliest recent conflicts, with some researchers estimating as many as 600,000 deaths. Many families in Mekelle have been preparing for renewed violence for months by withdrawing savings, hoarding food and sheltering relatives who fled rural areas during the previous war. "Everyone heard the news of war and decided to make their way here," engineer Kibrom Medhanie said. "It's calm but you can feel it. Everyone is nervous."
Abiy Ahmed Ali, Ethiopia's prime minister, with his counterpart in India, Narendra Modi - Shutterstock
"They all shook hands in Pretoria, but I still mourn. A brother and a cousin of mine died fighting with the Tigrayans in the first war. I hate [Abiy], but I hate war too. It's not worth dying just for them to shake hands again." — Woldeab Berhe, Mekelle resident
Regional Risks and Shifting Alliances
The formation last week of an "Alliance for Survival" — a coalition of seven rebel groups including the TPLF and the Amhara Fano movement — has heightened fears the fighting could spread. Analysts warn the conflict could rapidly intersect with rivalries in Sudan and Somalia and draw in regional powers. Several Ethiopian factions have been accused of supporting opposing sides in Sudan’s war, and complex ties with Eritrea, the UAE and Egypt further complicate the picture.
Members of the TPLF walk along a main road in Mekelle on Wednesday, following an announcement by seven rebel groups - AFP / Getty
International Dynamics
Diplomatic and military relationships in the region have shifted since the 2018 Eritrea–Ethiopia peace deal that helped secure Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Nobel Prize. Eritrea, accused in the past of supporting operations against the TPLF, denies certain claims; the new rebel alliance has also denied formal links with neighboring governments. The recent lifting of some U.S. sanctions on Eritrea has raised concerns among critics that arms flows could increase, though direct links are contested.
Gebretsadik Abraha, 35, carries bottles of fuel as Mekele residents respond to the latest fighting in northern Ethiopia - AFP / Getty
Analysts' Assessment and Outlook
Experts say multiple active fronts, exposed civilian populations, airstrikes and disrupted communications make containment difficult. "Several military fronts are now active simultaneously," warned Jalale Gettachew Birru of ACLED, noting the conflict is expanding in several directions at once. With deep local grievances still unresolved and shifting coalitions, the immediate outlook is of a volatile and dangerous unfolding crisis.
TPLF fighters guarding captured Ethiopian government soldiers in Mekele in July 2021, during the two-year civil war - Getty/Yasuyoshi Chiba
Humanitarian concerns are urgent: disruption of supplies, banking and communications could quickly deepen civilian suffering. International observers, regional leaders and humanitarian agencies will be watching closely as diplomatic pressure and emergency relief efforts seek to limit further escalation and civilian harm.
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