A Quaest poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated run‑off, a gap within the survey's ±2% margin of error. The gap has tightened since an August 5 poll. In first‑round voting Lula leads 38% to Bolsonaro's 31%; other candidates remain well behind. Lula is campaigning on national sovereignty and protection of Brazil's mineral resources amid warnings against foreign interference.
Lula Holds Narrow Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro as October Vote Approaches — New Poll
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks at the national convention of the Workers' Party of Brazil in Sao Paulo, Brazil, August 2, 2026 [Sebastiao Moreira/EPA]
A new Quaest poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a slim lead over right‑wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro as Brazil heads toward the October presidential vote. In a simulated run‑off, Lula takes 43% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 40% — a difference that falls within the poll's two‑point margin of error, effectively a statistical tie.
Poll Results
The Quaest survey, conducted between August 10 and 13 and commissioned by Globo, interviewed 2,004 respondents. The earlier Quaest poll published on August 5 had shown a slightly wider gap, with Lula at 44% and Bolsonaro at 39%.
In a first‑round scenario the president leads more comfortably: Lula 38% and Flavio Bolsonaro 31%. Other candidates trail well behind: Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado at 4% each and Romeu Zema at 2%. Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round the top two move to a run‑off.
Political Context
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the main standard‑bearer for the political right after his father was barred from running. The elder Bolsonaro was declared ineligible by Brazil's top electoral court for abusing office and was later convicted in a separate case related to efforts to overturn his 2022 defeat to Lula.
Lula formally launched his re‑election campaign at the Workers' Party convention in São Paulo on August 2, framing his bid around national sovereignty. He called for higher defence spending and pledged to protect Brazil's reserves of rare earths and other critical minerals from foreign control, saying these steps are meant to guard the country's independence and resources.
"In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it does not belong," Lula told delegates as he warned against external interference.
Relations between the Bolsonaro family and former US President Donald Trump have been close; Lula publicly urged Trump in June not to interfere in Brazil's election.
What This Means
The poll indicates a competitive race heading into the final months of campaigning. With the run‑off margin within the margin of error, both campaigns remain in contention: a first‑round majority would secure re‑election for a front‑runner, but if no candidate clears 50% a tightly fought run‑off is likely.
Methodology: Quaest fieldwork Aug. 10–13, sample size 2,004; commissioned by the Globo media group. Margin of error ±2 percentage points.
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