The Aug. 7 Texas Pulse poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 43% among 619 likely Texas voters, a margin inside the ±4.7-point error. Independents have swung toward Talarico, who now leads them by 23 points, according to ReconMR analyst Lindsey Hendren. Favorability ratings show Paxton at 40% favorable/52% unfavorable and Talarico at 46% favorable/39% unfavorable. Other recent polls in early August and late July also show narrow Talarico leads, keeping the race competitive.
Texas Senate Race Tightens: Talarico Holds Slim Lead in Fourth Straight Poll
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a press conference at the Hyatt Centric Congress Avenue on July 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas.
A new Texas Pulse survey released Aug. 7 shows Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton in one of the nation's most closely watched U.S. Senate contests. The poll puts Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 43% among likely Texas voters — a gap that falls inside the survey's ±4.7 percentage-point margin of error.
The Texas Pulse poll was conducted July 27–30 by ReconMR for the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and surveyed 619 likely Texas voters. ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said the shift since June is driven largely by independents, who now favor Talarico by 23 points (53%–30%), up from a 14-point advantage in June.
Favorability: The poll finds Paxton's favorability at 40% favorable and 52% unfavorable (an increase in his unfavorable rating from June). Talarico's favorability stands at 46% favorable and 39% unfavorable, a modest improvement from June figures.
Regional Patterns
Hendren noted clear geographic splits: Talarico leads by substantial margins in the Austin and Dallas–Fort Worth areas, Paxton performs strongly in many rural parts of the state, and the Houston and San Antonio regions remain closely divided.
Issue Priorities
The poll asked which candidate voters believed would do a better job on several key issues. Respondents answered as follows:
- Making Prices More Affordable: Talarico 51%, Paxton 38%
- Securing the U.S.–Mexico Border: Paxton 48%, Talarico 44%
- War in Iran: Talarico 50%, Paxton 39%
- Keeping Texans Safe: Talarico 50%, Paxton 43%
- Managing Texas Water Supply: Talarico 49%, Paxton 39%
How This Compares With Other Recent Polls
The Texas Pulse result is the fourth poll in two weeks showing Talarico with a narrow lead. A Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Center poll released Aug. 4 showed Talarico 47% to Paxton 45% (within that poll's ±2.83-point margin of error). A Fox News poll released July 30 put Talarico ahead 51% to 48%, and a Texas Public Opinion Research poll on July 28 showed Talarico leading 45% to 40%.
Taken together, these surveys suggest a competitive race with small, shifting leads and strength for each candidate in different voter groups and regions. Given the margins of error, the contest remains close and could change as Election Day approaches.
Reporting: Mateo Rosiles, Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and regional papers in Texas. For tips: [email protected].
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Texas Senate race tightens as fourth straight poll shows slim gap.
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