Economists caution that the recent government shutdown disrupted key data collection, meaning the latest inflation report may not fully reflect true price pressures. The Labor Department treated October housing costs as unchanged, a decision that could make headline inflation look cooler than reality. Experts urge caution in interpreting the number, even as the White House touted the report as evidence of a "historic economic boom." President Trump is visiting North Carolina to address affordability concerns.
Economists Say Shutdown Skewed Inflation Report, White House Hails 'Historic Economic Boom'
Economists warn that last week’s inflation report may be less reliable than usual after the recent government shutdown disrupted data collection. The Labor Department’s decision to treat October housing costs as unchanged in its estimates is likely to make headline inflation appear cooler than it actually is, analysts say.
Why The Report May Be Misleading
The Labor Department faced gaps in October and November source data and, in some cases, used static or imputed values—most notably for housing costs in October. Housing is a large component of the consumer price index (CPI), so holding those costs flat in the estimates can materially understate underlying price pressures.
What Economists Are Saying
“The November inflation report was like the data-nerd equivalent of the emperor-with-no-clothes story: We didn’t have basically any October data and limited November data,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told Semafor. “I don’t look at this and see anything nefarious; I don’t see anything political. … But the actual read, the number, is probably not 100% accurate.”
Other economists have echoed the caution, saying markets, policymakers, and the public should treat the headline number with care until full source data are available and revisions are published.
Political Reaction And Implications
Despite the caveats from experts, the White House promoted the report as evidence of a ‘historic economic boom,’ according to press secretary Karoline Leavitt. President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit North Carolina to address voter concerns about affordability, and the administration is using the report to bolster its messaging on the economy.
Bottom line: The reported inflation figure likely understates actual price pressures because of data gaps caused by the shutdown. Investors and policymakers should await revised and more complete data before drawing firm conclusions.
