Deadline Reached: Lebanon’s staged plan to disarm Hezbollah reaches its first deadline this week, targeting areas south of the Litani River.
Standoff: Hezbollah rejects the decree and says it will only consider integrating its weapons into a national defence plan once Israeli attacks and occupations stop.
Risks: Ongoing Israeli strikes, reconstruction obstacles and a powerful Hezbollah arsenal make forced disarmament risky and raise the prospect of renewed conflict or internal violence.
As Lebanon’s government reaches the first deadline in its staged plan to disarm Hezbollah in the south, the Iran-backed group has reiterated that it will not relinquish its weapons — at least not while Israeli strikes and occupations persist.
In August, Lebanon’s cabinet instructed the armed forces to prepare a plan, following a U.S.-backed framework, aiming to remove Hezbollah’s weapons nationwide by the end of 2025. The military presented a phased approach in September: begin with areas south of the Litani River (about 28 km/17 miles from the Israeli border), then move northward toward Beirut and, ultimately, across the country. Thursday marks the target date for completing that first phase.
Hezbollah immediately rejected the government decree, calling it a "grave sin" and vowing to treat the measure "as if it does not exist." Deputy leader Naim Qassem told supporters this week that demanding exclusive state control of arms while Israel continues to carry out operations on Lebanese territory and the United States exerts pressure on Beirut serves Israeli — not Lebanese — interests.
Naim Qassem: "To demand exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression and America is imposing its will on Lebanon means you are not working in Lebanon’s interest."
Israeli strikes across Lebanon have continued through the period leading up to the deadline. The official National News Agency reported that Israeli forces bombed several villages in southern Lebanon and demolished the last intact home in the border town of Marwahin. Strikes have not been limited south of the Litani: in November, an Israeli strike in Beirut killed a Hezbollah commander, Haytham Tabtabai, according to reporting. An attack in Sidon last week killed three people, including a Lebanese army officer.
Beyond air raids, Israel maintains drone surveillance over much of Lebanese airspace and holds several positions inside Lebanon. The Israeli military has repeatedly been accused of targeting reconstruction efforts in the south, hampering the rebuilding of towns devastated in last year’s fighting.
Hezbollah says it will consider integrating its weapons into a national defence strategy only once Israeli attacks and occupations stop. Its supporters argue the group provides a deterrent against Israeli advances and can defend southern Lebanon where the state’s capacities are limited.
Opponents counter that Hezbollah’s arsenal invites further Israeli strikes without delivering effective state-level defence. Critics also argue that a powerful, independent armed movement undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty and the ability of a multi-confessional state to make collective decisions on war and peace. Many opponents point to Hezbollah’s close relationship with Iran and warn that the group often pursues regional objectives aligned with Tehran’s interests.
The United States is the main supplier of advanced arms to the Lebanese armed forces. In September, U.S. special envoy Tom Barrack said Washington does not intend to arm Lebanon so it can fight Israel, adding that U.S. aid is not meant to be used against Hezbollah in a confrontation with Israel.
Political and military dynamics in the region — including Israeli operations in Syria — have contributed to the sense among Hezbollah and its supporters that Lebanon faces persistent external threats. Supporters also recall long-standing tensions and alleged violations in the south that predate Hezbollah’s founding in 1982.
Hezbollah emerged during the Lebanese civil war and Israel’s 1982 invasion, with support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Over decades it evolved from an irregular militia into a powerful political and military actor. It is credited with forcing Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000 and with fighting a prolonged 2006 war that left both sides locked in a stalemate. The group later intervened in Syria to support the Assad government and provided advisers to Iran-aligned actors in Iraq.
Domestically, Hezbollah has maintained significant political influence since 2006, preserving a strong parliamentary bloc and placing allies in important posts. That influence has helped it remain a dominant security actor in parts of Lebanon.
Following the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza, Hezbollah opened a "support front" for Hamas. For months fighting was concentrated along the Lebanon–Israel border, but in September 2024 Israel launched wider operations inside Lebanon. Reporting described heavy losses among Hezbollah’s ranks and substantial damage to border towns, and many civilians were displaced for extended periods. Accounts vary on the full toll among the movement’s top leadership; independent verification of all claims remains challenging in the fog of conflict.
The violence eventually subsided into a ceasefire that Hezbollah largely observed, with one reported attack on an Israeli position in December 2024. Israel has been accused at times of violating the truce. The prolonged campaign strained Hezbollah’s domestic standing and altered Lebanon’s security environment.
Lebanese officials say the army is "making progress" on the first phase of the disarmament plan, but Hezbollah insists it will not surrender its arms while it perceives Israeli threats. Attempts to force disarmament could risk sparking internal conflict: Hezbollah still commands thousands of fighters and retains a significant weapons stockpile. Confrontation between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah would be catastrophic for a country already weakened by economic and political crises, and could be complicated by members of the military sympathetic to Hezbollah refusing to act against fellow citizens.
At the international level, U.S. and Israeli leaders have not ruled out further action. U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said: "We’ll see about it," when asked about the prospect of renewed conflict, and cautioned that "Hezbollah has been behaving badly."
Lebanon stands at a precarious crossroads. A government-led disarmament timetable collides with a powerful and defiant armed movement, persistent Israeli strikes and occupations, and deep domestic divides over sovereignty and security. With the first phase deadline now reached, Lebanese leaders must weigh the high risks of forcible disarmament against the dangers of leaving a potent non-state military force intact — all while avoiding another devastating war.
