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U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 216,000 as Layoffs Remain Muted and Economy Shows Signs of Cooling

Key points: Initial unemployment claims fell 6,000 to 216,000 for the week ending Nov. 22, below the FactSet forecast. The four-week average eased to 223,750, while continuing claims rose to 1.96 million, indicating longer spells of unemployment. Additional data — slower retail sales, weak consumer confidence and easing wholesale inflation — point to a cooling economy and have increased market expectations of a possible Fed rate cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting.

U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 216,000 as Layoffs Remain Muted and Economy Shows Signs of Cooling

The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued even as several high-profile employers have announced job reductions.

In the week ending Nov. 22, initial claims dropped by 6,000 from the prior week to 216,000, the Labor Department reported. That figure was below the 230,000 median forecast in a FactSet survey. Economists use initial claims as a near real-time proxy for layoffs, though announced cuts by large firms such as UPS and Amazon can take weeks or months to show up in claims data.

The four-week moving average, which smooths short-term volatility, edged down 1,000 to 223,750.

Labor market dynamics

Continuing claims — the count of people receiving ongoing unemployment benefits — rose by 7,000 in the week ending Nov. 15 to 1.96 million, a sign that spells of unemployment are lengthening for some workers.

Other labor indicators paint a mixed picture. Government data showed payrolls grew modestly in September with employers adding about 119,000 jobs, although revisions showed job losses in August. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level in four years, as more people re-entered the labor force but did not immediately find jobs.

Economic context

Recent releases also indicated softer demand: retail sales slowed in September after several months of gains, consumer confidence plunged to its second-lowest level in five years, and wholesale inflation eased somewhat. Taken together, these signs point to a cooling economy and reduced inflationary pressure.

Financial markets have reacted by increasing the likelihood they assign to a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut at the policy meeting scheduled for Dec. 9–10.

Bottom line: Initial jobless claims show layoffs remain muted for now, but rising continuing claims and weaker demand indicators suggest parts of the labor market and the broader economy are cooling.

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