Consumers grew noticeably less confident in December as high prices and President Trump’s tariffs weighed on sentiment. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.8 points to 89.1, marking a fifth straight decline and nearing April’s low. Short-term expectations stayed at 70.7 — well below the 80 recession-warning threshold — while current conditions plunged. Job-market perceptions softened, unemployment rose to 4.6%, and economists expect slower growth in Q4.
Consumer Confidence Falls Near April Lows as Inflation and Tariffs Weigh
FILE - Shoppers wait in line to enter Macy's flagship store on Nov. 28, 2025 in New York. (AP Photo/Angelina Katsanis, File)
WASHINGTON — American consumers entered December noticeably less confident about the economy as worries about high prices and President Donald Trump’s tariff program weighed on sentiment, according to a report from The Conference Board.
Key Takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped 3.8 points to 89.1 — the fifth consecutive monthly decline — bringing the index close to the April low of 85.7 when new import tariffs were introduced.
Data Highlights
The Conference Board reported that a measure of short-term expectations for incomes, business conditions and the job market held steady at 70.7. That gauge remains below the 80 level often cited as a threshold for elevated recession risk and has been under 80 for 11 straight months. Assessments of current economic conditions plunged 9.5 points to 116.8.
Labor Market Signals
Consumer perceptions of the job market softened. The survey found 26.7% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful," down from 28.2% in November, while 20.8% said jobs were "hard to get," up from 20.1%. Separately, government data showed the U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November after losing 105,000 in October. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November — the highest level since 2021.
What Consumers Are Saying
Write-in responses to the poll indicated that inflation and rising prices remain consumers’ top concerns, alongside unease about tariffs — despite repeated assertions by President Trump that inflation is a "hoax." The survey also showed household assessments of current finances fell into negative territory for the first time in nearly four years, though expectations for future family finances were the most positive since January.
Outlook
Economists say the labor market has moved toward a "low hire, low fire" dynamic as firms stay cautious amid tariff uncertainty and the lingering effects of higher interest rates. Since March, monthly job creation has averaged roughly 35,000, down from a 71,000 monthly average in the year ending in March; Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated those job figures may be revised lower. Although GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, forecasters expect a much weaker fourth quarter, citing the government shutdown and potential pullbacks in consumer spending.
Bottom line: Consumer sentiment is cooling as inflation, tariffs and a softer labor market combine to reduce optimism about the economy’s near-term trajectory.
