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Consumer Confidence Falls to 88.7 in November as Shutdown, Weak Hiring and Inflation Bite

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 88.7 in November from a revised 95.5 in October, marking the weakest reading since April. The drop follows a federal government shutdown, weaker hiring signals and persistent inflation, and was felt across political groups—especially independents. Retail sales cooled, and economists warn the shutdown could slow growth in the final quarter. Spending has so far held up, but downside risks are increasing.

11:26 PM, 11/25/2025Economy
Consumer Confidence Falls to 88.7 in November as Shutdown, Weak Hiring and Inflation Bite

U.S. consumer confidence weakened notably in November as the economy grappled with the recent federal government shutdown, softer hiring and persistent inflation. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 88.7 from an upwardly revised 95.5 in October — the weakest reading since April.

April's reading reflected market turbulence after broad tariffs were announced earlier in the year. The November decline was broad-based across political lines and especially pronounced among independents, a development the Conference Board warned could pose political challenges for the administration and congressional Republicans.

Key details

Retail sales cooled in September after stronger activity over the summer, and many economists now expect slower economic growth in the final quarter of the year as shutdown-related disruptions ripple through federal pay, contracts and air travel. Economists estimate the economy grew at an annualized rate near 3% in the July–September quarter, but the shutdown is likely to shave growth in the October–December period.

Although lower confidence can weigh on household spending, the link between sentiment and actual outlays has been inconsistent in recent years; consumer spending has often remained resilient even as confidence indicators fell. "We do not think that consumer spending is about to hit a cliff, as spending has decoupled from confidence, but risks to the downside are increasing," said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies.

Labor market gauges

Perceptions of the job market also softened. The proportion of consumers saying jobs were "plentiful" dropped to 27.6% in November from 28.6% in October, and is down sharply from 37% a year earlier in December. Meanwhile, 17.9% of respondents described jobs as "hard to get," a slight improvement from 18.3% in October but up from 15.2% in September. Economists regard these job-availability readings as useful indicators of future hiring and unemployment trends.

"Consumers' write-in responses about factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.

The Conference Board's survey was in the field through November 18, roughly five days after the shutdown ended on November 12.

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