The two front‑runners in Guinea‑Bissau's presidential election — incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo and main challenger Fernando Dias — have each declared victory ahead of the National Electoral Commission's release of provisional results.
Both campaigns said their candidate surpassed the 50% threshold on Monday, which would eliminate the need for a run‑off. "We have won the presidential race. We will not have a second round," Dias told supporters in the capital, Bissau, saying voters were "tired" and wanted change. Hours later, Embalo's campaign spokesman, Oscar Barbosa, said the president had also won outright and urged rivals to avoid statements that could undermine the electoral process.
The National Electoral Commission had not immediately responded to the conflicting claims; provisional results are expected to be published on Thursday. More than 200 international observers, including delegations from ECOWAS, the African Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, were present to monitor the vote.
Twelve candidates contested Sunday's ballot, which recorded turnout above 65 percent. Notably, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) — the party that led the anti‑colonial struggle against Portugal — was barred from fielding a candidate for the first time in the country's history and instead endorsed Dias. The endorsement, and backing from PAIGC leader and former prime minister Domingos Simoes Pereira, strengthened Dias's campaign. Dias, 47, is running with the Party for Social Renewal.
Embalo, 53, a former army general who served as prime minister from 2016 to 2018, is seeking to become the first Guinean president in 30 years to win a second term in office. Opposition parties have argued his mandate should have ended earlier this year; the Supreme Court ruled his term runs until early September, but the election was postponed until November.
Embalo dissolved parliament — which had been controlled by the opposition following the 2019 and 2023 legislative elections — and it has not been allowed to sit since December 2023. Guinea‑Bissau has experienced repeated coups and attempted coups since gaining independence more than five decades ago and remains one of the world’s poorest countries, with roughly half the population living in poverty, according to the World Bank.
The conflicting victory claims come amid heightened tensions and strong international scrutiny. Observers and local leaders have called for calm and for the electoral commission’s official figures to be respected to preserve stability and the credibility of the process.
