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Markey Leads Moulton by 9 Points in Massachusetts Democratic Primary Poll — 35% Still Undecided

The UNH Bay State Poll (Nov. 13–17) finds Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton 34% to 25% among 341 likely Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts, with 35% undecided. Markey holds a substantial favorability advantage (55% to 34%) and strong support among progressives, while Moulton performs best with moderates. High undecided levels mean the race remains volatile ahead of the Sept. 1, 2026 primary.

07:27 AM, 11/25/2025Politics

Sen. Ed Markey holds a nine-point advantage over Rep. Seth Moulton among likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters, but the race remains fluid: more than a third of respondents say they are undecided.

The University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center's Bay State Poll, conducted online as part of the States of Opinion Project from Nov. 13–17, surveyed 341 likely Democratic primary voters. Markey, a progressive incumbent, drew 34% support to Moulton's 25%; writer and former teacher Alex Rikleen received 2%.

Key findings

• Undecided voters: 35% of respondents remain undecided, leaving significant room for movement ahead of the primary.
• Favorability: Markey posts a 55% favorable rating versus 34% for Moulton.
• Fitness for office: 39% say Markey is "definitely" physically and mentally capable of serving another term, while 15% say he is "probably" capable.

Ideological breakdown

Markey commands broad support among self-identified progressives (over 60%), while Moulton performs strongest among moderates (49% to Markey's 14%). Responses also show Markey leading among those who identify as socialists, whereas Moulton holds a narrow advantage among self-described liberals.

Race dynamics

Moulton, 47, has centered his challenge on generational change, arguing the Democratic Party needs fresh approaches. Markey, 79, has served in Congress for decades and retains stronger overall name recognition and favorability among the Democratic electorate. With 35% undecided, messaging, endorsements and campaign activity in the coming months could substantially reshape the contest ahead of the Sept. 1, 2026 primary.

Methodology

The poll is an online survey of 341 likely Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts conducted Nov. 13–17 as part of the UNH Survey Center's States of Opinion Project.

Primary date: Sept. 1, 2026.

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