Rising Poverty Fuels Surge for Le Pen: France’s Poorest Regions Pivot to National Rally

When Emmanuel Macron celebrated his 2017 victory he vowed to win back voters drawn to the far right by addressing their anger and economic distress. Seven years later, that promise looks increasingly unfulfilled as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has expanded into many of France’s most economically stressed regions.

Poverty and a shifting electorate

Since Macron took office, an estimated 1.2 million more people have fallen below France’s official poverty line. The national poverty rate rose from 13.8% in 2017 to 15.4% by 2023, its highest level in nearly three decades of INSEE records. Critics argue that Macron’s business-friendly measures—cutting corporate taxes and reducing a wealth tax—helped investment but left many households feeling squeezed, a dynamic that opponents have dubbed “president of the rich.”

Where National Rally has gained ground

Analysis of regional poverty rates through 2021 alongside first-round legislative vote shares in 2012, 2017, 2022 and 2024 shows a clear geographic pattern: National Rally has made its strongest advances in deindustrialized areas of the northeast and across parts of the Mediterranean coast. The party’s parliamentary presence rose from 89 deputies in 2022 to 123 of 577 seats in 2024, its largest haul to date.

Why the message resonates

Experts and local politicians point to a combination of economic frustration and cultural concerns. Luc Rouban, a senior researcher at Sciences Po who studies the party, says the National Rally vote correlates closely with poverty, weak social mobility and pessimism about the future. François Ouzilleau, a centrist who lost his seat in Normandy to a National Rally candidate, described the movement as one that “feeds off anger and people’s problems.”

“We clearly see that the National Rally vote is very strongly correlated with issues of poverty, of difficulties with social mobility,” said Luc Rouban.

At the same time, immigration and skepticism about European institutions remain central to the party’s platform. Observers compare aspects of National Rally’s approach to populist strategies seen elsewhere, arguing it blends economic promises—such as redirecting public money toward lowering energy costs—with firm stances on migration and national sovereignty.

Local stories and political stakes

In the southern Var department, long above the national poverty average, National Rally won seven of eight legislative seats in both 2022 and 2024. Laure Lavalette, a parliamentary spokesperson for the party representing Var, says many constituents describe painful trade-offs between basic needs: “Some tell me that they have to choose between eating or heating.”

The fractured parliament produced by the 2024 vote left successive minority governments vulnerable. National Rally sought fresh elections that polls suggested could further increase its power, but President Macron opted not to call another dissolution of the National Assembly. For now, a band of lawmakers continues to support Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, wary that a new contest could unseat them.

Local officials warn the political landscape could shift further if economic distress persists. “There’s a sword of Damocles hanging over us, it’s called the National Rally,” Ouzilleau said, noting many voters now express a willingness to “try” the party after feeling other options failed to deliver.

Reported by William Jarrett in London.