Epstein Files: A Turning Point in Trump's Presidency — The Fallout Is Just Beginning

When future filmmakers assemble a definitive mini-series about the Trump presidency, the drama of this past week will likely be a season finale. What began as a stalled House discharge petition with 217 signatures transformed into a combined congressional vote of 527–1 to force the release of Jeffrey Epstein–related records — a rapid and striking turn in contemporary U.S. politics.

At times the episode resembled political farce. President Trump spent months pushing to keep the files sealed in Justice Department custody and publicly chastised supporters who urged disclosure. In the hours before Representative Adelita Grijalva (D‑Ariz.) became the petition’s final signer, the White House summoned Representative Lauren Boebert (R‑Colo.) to the Situation Room while senior officials tried to persuade her to withdraw her name. Trump also attempted to reach Representative Nancy Mace (R‑S.C.) by phone; she did not answer, and the petition moved forward.

The abrupt reversal

Once it became clear a significant bloc of House Republicans would back release, Trump abruptly reversed course. He publicly endorsed the bill and said he would sign it if it reached his desk. The White House apparently expected a slower, more amendable process — a view shared by Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑La.) — that might have allowed Senate changes to blunt disclosure. Instead, both chambers passed the measure without amendments and sent it to the president within hours.

What the law requires — and allows

The newly enacted Epstein Files Transparency Act requires the Department of Justice to make records "publicly available in a searchable and downloadable format" within 30 days. That mandate does not guarantee an immediate, unredacted release of every document. Two days before urging House Republicans to approve the bill, Trump ordered Attorney General Pam Bondi to open criminal inquiries into any Democrats connected to Epstein. Bondi assigned the probe to Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York. Reviewing this large trove of documents will be time-consuming for a busy U.S. attorney’s office, and the statute explicitly permits the DOJ to withhold material that "would jeopardize an active federal investigation or ongoing prosecution."

By contrast, Bondi had previously stated that the files had been reviewed and contained no "evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties." Any broad withholding on investigatory grounds would likely be seen as a cover‑up and would invite protracted litigation. Several news organizations already have Freedom of Information Act requests pending and will argue that the new law strengthens their claims if disclosures are denied.

Political consequences

Given these factors, a complete and prompt public release of the Epstein files is unlikely. Politically, however, the bill turns the records into the Trumpian equivalent of Hillary Clinton’s email server — a persistent political liability that will fuel damaging news cycles for the remainder of his term.

The episode also revealed the limits of Trump’s control. Many congressional Republicans are not personally loyal to him; they may fear his political base more than they admire him. When Trump failed to hold his base on this fight, he lost leverage over lawmakers who must answer to their voters. If the material in these files were to inflict political damage, few in Congress would publicly grieve. That reality helps explain why the Senate passed the Transparency Act by unanimous consent rather than altering it.

I am not forecasting an immediate political collapse — that prediction has been made too often. But failing to command his base on a high-profile fight weakens Trump, especially when combined with the limitations of his current political position. That dynamic creates space for ambitious Republicans to reposition and for extended political turbulence.

There is no single document or scandal that will necessarily end a political career, including these files. Still, this clash may be remembered as the moment the presidency "jumped the shark" and its momentum began to ebb — though decline can stretch on, as television history reminds us.

Chris Truax is an appellate attorney who served as Southern California chair for John McCain’s primary campaign in 2008.