A Sept. 22-23 InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters shows Josh Turek leading Ashley Hinson 47% to 46%, inside the poll's 1.9-point margin of error. Recent September surveys have been inconsistent, with some favoring Hinson and others Turek, reflecting differences in methodology and samples. Marist data point to weak approval for former President Trump in Iowa and a Democratic advantage on the generic ballot, while Cook classifies the race as a toss-up. With overlapping margins of error and mixed results, the contest remains too close to call.
Iowa Senate Race Too Close To Call: Turek Holds 1-Point Lead Over Hinson
Rep. Ashley Hinson (Leon Neal/Getty Images)
A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 22-23 among 1,200 likely voters shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 47% to 46%, a margin inside the survey's 1.9-percentage-point margin of error.
The InsiderAdvantage result is the latest data point in a race that has produced sharply different outcomes across recent polls. A Marist poll conducted Sept. 17-20 among 1,050 registered voters showed a wider Turek advantage, 50% to 42% (±4.4 percentage points). Other September surveys were more mixed: Trafalgar Group showed Hinson ahead, Co/efficient (including leaners) put Hinson up 48% to 43%, Cygnal reported a tie, Rasmussen found Turek ahead, and YouGov also showed Turek leading among likely voters.
Variation in results reflects differences in methodology — likely voters vs. registered voters, sample size, question wording and inclusion of leaners — and highlights the volatility of this contest. RealClearPolitics' polling average through Sept. 20 had Turek ahead by roughly 0.4 percentage points.
Political Context
Marist's survey also found President Donald Trump's approval in Iowa at 41% with 58% disapproving, and Democrats leading Republicans 50% to 45% on the generic congressional ballot — factors that may signal broader challenges for Republicans in the state.
Despite Turek's narrow head-to-head lead in the InsiderAdvantage poll, 59% of respondents still said they expected Hinson to ultimately win, suggesting public perception of the race's competitiveness and candidate strengths.
Outlook: As of Sept. 23, the Cook Political Report rates the Iowa Senate contest a toss-up after moving it from Lean Republican in August, citing increasingly competitive public and private polling despite Trump having carried Iowa by double digits in 2024.
Polling provides snapshots, not certainties. With overlapping margins of error and mixed results from multiple pollsters, the contest remains effectively too close to call.
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