Gas Prices, Tariffs and the Iran War Give Democrats a Real Shot at Flipping Deep-Red Iowa

Rep. Ashley Hinson — the Trump-endorsed Republican running for the U.S. Senate in Iowa — publicly called for an end to the war with Iran on Monday, a notable break with the president that came after she recently voted against a War Powers Act resolution intended to rein in the administration's military authority.

The shift underscored the political pressure building across Iowa as rising fuel costs and trade tensions squeeze households and farmers. Hinson proposed immediate relief measures, including pausing the federal gas tax and temporarily suspending diesel exports, while also urging replenishment of the Highway Trust Fund to prevent deterioration of roads and bridges.

"These actions to lower costs are needed ASAP, and the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end," Hinson said.

Her attempt to distance herself from the White House drew sharp criticism from Democrat Josh Turek, the Paralympian-turned-Democratic nominee for the Senate, who accused her of flip-flopping and pointed to votes that he says continued authorization for the conflict.

Polls Tighten

Fresh polls have amplified Republican concern. A Marist University survey released Tuesday put Turek ahead of Hinson by eight points, and a YouGov poll showed Turek up by one point — signals that the race could be competitive in a state that has trended strongly Republican over the past decade.

Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate Josh Turek is trying to win a Senate seat Democrats have not held in 12 years. (Getty)

Economic Headwinds for Iowa

Several policy pressures tied to national politics have hit Iowans directly:

• Diesel prices: AAA reports the average gallon of diesel in Iowa has jumped to about $6.31 from $3.59 a year earlier — a major cost for farmers who rely on diesel for tractors and equipment.
• Tariffs and trade frictions have continued to strain agricultural markets. While China has pledged to buy more U.S. soybeans, it still maintains tariffs (roughly 10%) on many American goods, keeping pressure on farm incomes.
• State leadership: Two-term Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds has said she will not seek re-election, and polls show Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn in the governor's race, creating down-ballot opportunities for Democrats.

Politics, Messaging and Caution

Republicans are attempting to refocus the campaign on cultural issues, such as the participation of transgender athletes in women's sports. But both Turek and Sand have told national outlets they oppose transgender athletes competing in women's events — undercutting a simple partisan contrast on that front.

Democrats remain cautious about reading too much into current polls. Veteran Iowa pollster Ann Selzer's pre-2024 polling showed a different outcome than the election itself, reminding both parties that polls can misread turnout and late shifts.

Iowa's conservative tilt could still protect Hinson and other Republicans, but rising costs at the pump and persistent trade pressures linked to national policy choices have created an opening for Democrats. If top-ticket Republicans falter, strategists may point to Trump-era policies and decisions as factors that shifted the political landscape in a state he had consistently delivered for the GOP.