New NYT/Siena polls show Democratic gubernatorial candidates leading in four red states — Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska — with the largest advantage in Iowa, where Rob Sand is up by 11 points. The findings suggest President Trump’s attempt to make the midterms a referendum on himself has underperformed as his approval remains low amid cost-of-living worries and the war in Iran. Kansas was the lone surveyed state where a Republican led, and strategists on both sides cautioned that polls can change as Election Day approaches.
Democrats Lead In Four Red-State Governor Races As Trump’s Midterm Message Falters
A color change? Trump messaging falls flat as Democrats surge in 4 red-state races for governor
With roughly one month until Election Day, new polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows Democratic gubernatorial nominees leading Republican opponents in four traditionally red states: Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. These states have not elected Democratic governors in at least two decades, making the shifts notable as campaigns head into the final stretch.
Poll Highlights
Iowa: The largest Democratic advantage appears in Iowa, where 52% of likely voters backed Democrat Rob Sand versus 41% for Republican Zach Lahn — an 11-point margin. Sand has campaigned widely across the state this year.
Democratic gubernatorial candidates have surged ahead of their GOP rivals in a series of red states, according to new polling. Pictured: Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for Iowa governor, speaks at a campaign event in August (Getty Images)
Ohio: Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, 49% to 45%. A Times poll in June had shown the race essentially tied, indicating movement toward the Democratic candidate.
Texas: In a state that last elected a Democratic governor in 1990, Democrat Gina Hinojosa led incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, 49% to 46%.
Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former director of the Ohio Department of Health, Dr. Amy Acton, speaks to supporters during a rally on April 28, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio (Getty Images)
Alaska: Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins was ahead of Republican frontrunner Bernadette Wilson, 52% to 48%.
Kansas And Broader Context
Kansas was the only surveyed state showing a Republican lead: state senator Ty Masterson led Democrat Cindy Holscher, 49% to 44%, in the race to succeed the retiring Democratic governor.
Analysts say these results suggest President Donald Trump’s effort to frame the midterms as a referendum on himself has not resonated with many voters. Trump’s approval rating remains near historic lows amid mounting voter concerns about the cost of living and the ongoing war in Iran.
Polling was conducted from late September into early October and reflects likely-voter samples. Some Republican strategists caution that polls have misfired in past cycles. The White House, for its part, has sought to redirect attention to the administration’s record on tax cuts and immigration.
Bottom line: Several competitive, traditionally Republican states currently tilt toward Democratic candidates in these polls — a dynamic that could reshape expectations for the midterms if it holds through Election Day.
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