Marist's latest poll shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 50%–42% in Iowa's open Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. The survey of 1,050 registered voters was conducted Sept. 17–20 by phone, text and online. Hinson recently called for an immediate end to the Iran war and proposed price-relief measures; Turek criticized her voting record on the conflict. The race draws comparisons to 2008 because of economic anxiety, though important differences remain. Election Day is Nov. 3.
Marist Poll Shows Josh Turek Leading Ashley Hinson 50%–42% in Competitive Iowa Senate Race
Josh Turek, left, showed a lead over Ashley Hinson, right, in a recent poll assessing Iowa's Senate race. (AP/Getty)
A new Marist poll released Tuesday shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 50% to 42% in Iowa's open U.S. Senate contest, a race that could help determine control of the Senate and echoes aspects of the last Democratic Senate victory in the state in 2008.
Poll Details And Context
The Marist survey interviewed 1,050 registered Iowa voters between Sept. 17 and 20 and contacted respondents by phone, text and online. The race is to replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, and the outcome will be watched nationally as both parties vie for Senate control.
Where The Candidates Stand
Shortly before the poll's release, Hinson publicly broke with former President Donald Trump by calling for a "successful and immediate end" to the Iran war. In a post on X she proposed near-term measures to ease costs for Iowans—suspending the gas tax, pausing diesel exports, expanding E-15 availability, reinstating a $1-per-gallon biodiesel tax credit and creating a diesel relief program—while urging replenishment of the Highway Trust Fund.
Hinson: "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran... The war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end. I am working every day to deliver bipartisan results for Iowans and I will work with anyone who is ready to tackle this challenge immediately."
Turek responded on X by criticizing Hinson's voting record, saying she had repeatedly voted to continue the conflict when given the chance.
Turek: "[I]t's easy to send a tweet but when you had the chance to vote to end this war, you chose not to. You voted seven times to continue it, including just last week. It's time to actually end the forever wars and put Iowa and Iowans first."
Parallels And Key Differences With 2008
Observers note similarities between the current environment and the 2008 cycle—chiefly widespread economic anxiety driven by rising prices and fuel costs—but important distinctions remain. The 2008 race unfolded amid a global financial crisis and a prolonged Iraq War with large-scale ground deployments; the current Iran-related conflict has differed in scope. In 2008 Tom Harkin was a long-serving incumbent; this year’s contest is an open-seat midterm.
Farmers—vital to Iowa's economy—have been hit by tariffs, higher fuel costs and geopolitical disruptions, issues both campaigns are addressing as they appeal to rural voters.
What Comes Next
More public polling is expected before Election Day, and both campaigns are likely to step up spending and voter outreach as Nov. 3 approaches. Newsweek reached out to both campaigns and Iowa party organizations for comment.
Note: Newsweek reporters and editors used an AI assistant in reporting and editing this story.
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