The Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters released Sept. 24 shows Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on the generic congressional ballot (MoE ±3%). President Trump’s approval rating is 39% with 58% disapproval, and 56% of voters say he has done worse than expected in his second term. Economic concerns are rising: 63% say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse, and 41% list the economy as their top issue — voters who prioritize the economy now favor Democrats 55% to 41%.
New Emerson Poll: Democrats Hold 11-Point Lead On Generic Congressional Ballot
The interior of the American Airlines Center is seen on the first day of the2026 Republican National Conventionon Sept. 9, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. Republicans are kicking off two days of political pageantry aimed at blunting Democrats' momentum in the battle for control of Congress, holding their first-ever midterm election convention ‒ headlined tonight byPresident Donald Trump‒ in a bid to boost GOP enthusiasm amid warning signs for the party. Trump is rallying Republicans for the final push toward the Nov. 3 election with a big show in the Lone Star State featuring a long list of party leaders and candidates in swing districts.The president's approval rating has sagged as the Iran war drags on and cost-of-living concerns remain top of mind for many voters, threatening to weigh down GOP candidates. Trump has turned to the mini-convention toprovide a boostas the party struggles to sell his second-term agenda.(Brandon Bell, Getty Images)
A new Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters, released Sept. 24, finds Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on a generic congressional ballot — an 11-point advantage that could signal trouble for GOP candidates as the Nov. 3 midterm elections approach.
The survey has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points and was conducted earlier this week. The poll arrives roughly 40 days before Election Day and comes amid sinking approval ratings for President Donald Trump, which multiple recent surveys show at historically low levels for his second term.
Respondents cited the weakening economy, high gasoline prices and the ongoing war in Iran as factors driving dissatisfaction. Those concerns appear to be translating into electoral risk for Republicans as Democrats aim to reclaim control of the GOP-led Congress.
"While the generic ballot test doesn't capture nuances of individual races, it's an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave," said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling. He added that Independents and Hispanic voters — groups that leaned toward President Trump in 2024 — now favor the Democratic candidate by wide margins: Independents 60% to 31% and Hispanic voters 64% to 31%.
The poll also showed an unfavorable profile for the president: 39% of likely voters approve of Trump's job performance while 58% disapprove. When asked how his second term has gone, 56% said he has done worse than expected, 26% said better, and roughly 18% said it was about what they anticipated.
Economic Sentiment And Voter Priorities
Voters' views of Trump's economic stewardship have worsened: 63% now say his policies have made the economy worse, up 14 percentage points from April 2025 (49% then). Those who say his policies have improved the economy remained steady at about 28–29%.
When asked for their top concerns, 41% of respondents named the economy (a four-point increase from a similar Emerson poll in August). Threats to democracy were next at 17%, immigration at 13%, and health care at 12%. Notably, voters who list the economy as their top issue now break for the Democratic candidate, 55% to 41%.
Political Context: GOP Convention In Dallas
Republicans convened a two-day midterm event at the American Airlines Center in Dallas on Sept. 9, 2026 — the party's first-ever midterm convention — headlined by President Trump. The gathering aimed to energize the GOP base and spotlight competitive candidates, but the Emerson results suggest the party faces uphill messaging and turnout challenges ahead of the midterms.
Overall, the Emerson poll provides an early snapshot of a potentially favorable environment for Democrats, driven largely by economic concerns and declining approval for the president. Individual House and Senate races will still depend on local dynamics, but the generic ballot gap is a key indicator party strategists will watch closely in the weeks ahead.
Signage is seen on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on Sept. 9, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. President Donald Trump will headline the Republican National Committee's first-ever midterm convention as he aims to highlight his administration’s achievements and rally support for GOP candidates just two months before the upcoming elections being held on November 3.(Brandon Bell, Getty Images)
Inside the American Airlines Center, as the final preparations are underway for the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas on Sept. 8, 2026.(Brian Snyder, REUTERS)
A person rides a motorcycle past signage that reads "GOP EXPRESS" as the final preparations are underway for the Republican National Midterm Convention, in Dallas, Texas on Sept. 8, 2026.(Callaghan O'Hare, REUTERS)
People gather at the American Airlines Center, as preparations are underway for the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas on Sept. 8, 2026.(Brian Snyder, REUTERS)
Floor staff place American flags in seats on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on Sept. 9, 2026 in Dallas, Texas.(Justin Sullivan, Getty Images)
Floor staff organize signs on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on Sept. 9, 2026 in Dallas, Texas.(Justin Sullivan, Getty Images)
Vendors make preperations on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on Sept. 9, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. President Donald Trump will headline the Republican National Committee's first-ever midterm convention as he aims to highlight his administration’s achievements and rally support for GOP candidates just two months before the upcoming elections being held on November 3.(Brandon Bell, Getty Images)
President Donald Trump called on nations to resign from the International Criminal Court during his UNGA speech.
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