By 2100, 10 U.S. Cities May Never See Winter Lows Below 50°F

Winter is warming faster than other seasons across much of the United States, producing record heat in some areas and historic snow shortfalls in the West. A review of Climate Central and NOAA data compiled by Climate Crisis 247 projects that by 2100 ten U.S. cities will have average winter daily lows at or above 49.9°F (effectively 50°F).

Below are the cities identified in the analysis and the key figures for each: projected average winter daily low and average for 2100, observed winter values in 2025, the local warming increase from 1975–2025, and current city population.

10. Charleston, South Carolina
Projected (2100): 49.9°F daily low; 57.0°F daily average
Winter (2025): 44.2°F daily low; 51.3°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +4.2°F (≈14 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 154,338

9. Yuma, Arizona
Projected (2100): 50.1°F daily low; 63.5°F daily average
Winter (2025): 48.7°F daily low; 62.1°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +1.0°F (≈6 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 100,139

8. Tucson, Arizona
Projected (2100): 50.5°F daily low; 63.4°F daily average
Winter (2025): 46.4°F daily low; 59.3°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +3.0°F (≈17 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 547,073

7. Lafayette, Louisiana
Projected (2100): 50.9°F daily low; 61.4°F daily average
Winter (2025): 46.5°F daily low; 57.0°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +3.2°F (≈9 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 121,715

6. Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Projected (2100): 51.3°F daily low; 63.0°F daily average
Winter (2025): 46.1°F daily low; 57.8°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +3.8°F (≈11 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 222,771

5. San Antonio, Texas
Projected (2100): 51.4°F daily low; 63.6°F daily average
Winter (2025): 46.2°F daily low; 58.4°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +3.8°F (≈15 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 1,479,835

4. Austin, Texas
Projected (2100): 51.9°F daily low; 63.7°F daily average
Winter (2025): 46.2°F daily low; 58.0°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +4.2°F (≈13 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 979,539

3. San Francisco, California
Projected (2100): 52.6°F daily low; 58.7°F daily average
Winter (2025): 47.7°F daily low; 53.8°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +3.6°F (≈30 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 830,235

2. Las Vegas, Nevada
Projected (2100): 53.4°F daily low; 62.3°F daily average
Winter (2025): 46.4°F daily low; 55.3°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +5.1°F (≈32 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 660,400

1. New Orleans, Louisiana
Projected (2100): 54.9°F daily low; 64.5°F daily average
Winter (2025): 48.1°F daily low; 57.7°F daily average
Increase (1975–2025): +5.0°F (≈18 more warm winter days vs. 1991–2020)
City population: 371,853

Context and Implications

The projections reflect a simple, transparent method: local observed warming rates from 1975–2025 were applied to 2025 winter baselines to estimate conditions in 2100 if those trends continue. That approach highlights regional differences in historical warming and shows how continued warming could effectively erase traditional winter cold in some cities.

Impacts would include changes in energy demand, ecosystems, agriculture, and snowpack-dependent water supplies. The study also underscores how reduced winter snowfall—already observed in states such as Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming—can worsen drought and strain water resources.

Note on Dates and Data: This article corrects a typographical error in earlier drafts: the extreme January heat referenced occurred in January 2026. All projections and comparisons use publicly available Climate Central and NOAA data as compiled by Climate Crisis 247, and assume continuation of recent local warming trends.

Methodology

• Data sources: Climate Central and NOAA datasets compiled by Climate Crisis 247.
• Approach: For each city with available data, the local average annual warming rate (1975–2025) was applied to the 2025 winter baseline to estimate average winter daily lows in 2100.
• Inclusion: Only cities whose projected winter daily lows meet or exceed 49.9°F and whose 2025 winter daily lows were below 50°F were included.
• Limitations: Projections assume linear continuation of recent warming trends and do not account for future emissions scenarios, mitigation measures, or abrupt shifts in climate dynamics.