By 2100, U.S. Summers Could Be Much Hotter — What America’s Biggest Cities Will Feel Like

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Photo by Marcin Jozwiak on Unsplash

Overview: Climate Central projections show that, under continued high emissions, average daily summer highs in America’s largest cities will rise significantly by 2060 and 2100. Cities such as Chicago and Phoenix face some of the largest increases, with Chicago warming by about 9.1°F and Phoenix approaching average summer highs above 110°F by century's end. Policymaking on emissions will determine how closely reality follows these scenarios.

Scientists agree that, unless greenhouse gas emissions fall rapidly and substantially, global and regional temperatures will keep rising. The past decade is the hottest on record, and the United States saw 2026 become its warmest year in records extending back to at least 1895. Policy decisions that increase fossil-fuel pollution could push temperatures still higher and reshape local climates across the country.

Nonprofit research group Climate Central modeled future summer climates under continued high emissions. Using Climate Central data and NOAA 30-year averages as a baseline, Climate Crisis 247 mapped how summers in America’s largest cities could feel by midcentury and by 2100, and identified present-day comparison locations whose current summers resemble those projected for each city.

Projected Summer Changes For 10 Largest Cities

10. San Diego, California

Projected change: +1.8°F by 2060; +5.1°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Tepoztlán, Mexico (~1,800 miles SE) for 2060; Morelia, Mexico (~1,600 miles SE) for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 79.3°F → 81.1°F (2060) → 84.4°F (2100).

9. San Jose, California

Projected change: +2.6°F by 2060; +5.6°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Anaheim, CA (~400 miles SE) for 2060; Escondido, CA (~450 miles SE) for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 80.5°F → 83.1°F (2060) → 86.1°F (2100).

8. Los Angeles, California

Projected change: +2.6°F by 2060; +5.8°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Hemet, CA (~90 miles SE) for 2060; Túxpam de Rodríguez Cano, Mexico (~2,000 miles SE) for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 74.6°F → 77.2°F (2060) → 80.4°F (2100).

7. Houston, Texas

Projected change: +2.9°F by 2060; +6.4°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Urganch, Uzbekistan for 2060; Lahore, Pakistan for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 93.9°F → 96.8°F (2060) → 100.3°F (2100).

Photo byCody DohertyonUnsplash

6. San Antonio, Texas

Projected change: +3.3°F by 2060; +7.1°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Huebampo, Mexico (~1,100 miles SW) for 2060; Ciudad Obregón, Mexico (~1,000 miles SW) for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 94.4°F → 97.7°F (2060) → 101.5°F (2100).

5. Phoenix, Arizona

Projected change: +3.4°F by 2060; +7.2°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Zabol, Iran for 2060; Al Mubarraz, Saudi Arabia for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 105.2°F → 108.6°F (2060) → 112.4°F (2100).

4. New York, New York

Projected change: +3.1°F by 2060; +7.6°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Columbia, Maryland (~200 miles SW) for 2060; Columbia, South Carolina (~700 miles SW) for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 84.0°F → 87.1°F (2060) → 91.6°F (2100).

3. Dallas, Texas

Projected change: +3.5°F by 2060; +7.8°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Ciudad Benito Juárez, Mexico (~1,200 miles SW) for 2060; Ciudad Obregón, Mexico (~1,250 miles SW) for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 94.3°F → 97.8°F (2060) → 102.1°F (2100).

2. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Projected change: +3.5°F by 2060; +8.0°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Nashville, Tennessee (~800 miles SW) for 2060; Shreveport, Louisiana (~1,300 miles SW) for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 85.6°F → 89.1°F (2060) → 93.6°F (2100).

1. Chicago, Illinois

Projected change: +4.2°F by 2060; +9.1°F by 2100.
Comparable climates: Louisville, Kentucky (~300 miles S) for 2060; Montgomery, Alabama (~800 miles S) for 2100.
Current and projected avg. daily summer highs: 82.9°F → 87.1°F (2060) → 92.0°F (2100).

These projections indicate major warming across the nation: by 2100, many cities could feel like locations now hundreds to thousands of miles closer to the equator or in parts of the Middle East and South Asia. Whether these scenarios unfold depends heavily on future policy and emissions trajectories. Rapid reductions in carbon pollution could change the path; weaker rules on power-plant emissions and delayed clean-energy transitions would increase the likelihood of the hotter outcomes shown here.