Nikkei Poll: Takaichi's LDP Poised To Win Lower House Majority In Feb. 8 Vote

Jan 29•2 min read

FILE PHOTO: Sanae Takaichi, Japan's Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan Innovation Party co-leader Fumitake Fujita and Hirofumi Yoshimura, Japan Innovation Party leader, attend an election campaign event on the first day of campaigning for the February 8 snap election, in Tokyo, Japan, January 27, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo

The Nikkei's preliminary survey indicates Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party is likely to gain seats and secure a lower-house majority in the Feb. 8 snap election. The vote was called to seek a mandate for expansionary fiscal policy, a move that pushed bond yields higher amid market concerns about increased debt issuance. The poll combines Nikkei reporting with a Yomiuri survey conducted on Jan. 27-28.

A preliminary Nikkei survey published on Jan. 29 indicates Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to pick up seats and secure a majority in Japan's lower house in the snap general election scheduled for Feb. 8.

Poll Findings

The Nikkei's preliminary assessment, which combines the paper's reporting with a joint poll conducted with the Yomiuri Shimbun on Jan. 27-28, projects the LDP will push its seat total above the 233-seat majority threshold of the 465 contested lower-house seats. The party held 198 seats before the election was called.

Why The Election Was Called

Takaichi called the snap vote to seek a public mandate for more expansionary fiscal policy. The proposed shift toward larger government spending and stimulus measures has raised market concerns that Japan may need to issue additional government debt.

Market Reaction And Political Context

Markets reacted to the policy shift with a rise in bond yields, reflecting investor anxiety about higher government borrowing. Politically, the LDP currently governs in coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin); together they narrowly command a majority in the powerful lower house, while remaining a minority in the upper house.