Asahi's latest poll indicates Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's LDP is likely to secure a landslide in next week's lower house election, potentially exceeding the 233-seat majority. With coalition partner Ishin, the ruling bloc could reach roughly 300 seats, strengthening Takaichi's mandate for expansionary fiscal measures such as tax cuts and higher spending. Markets have already reacted: government bond yields rose after Takaichi vowed to suspend an 8% food sales levy, raising concerns over Japan's fiscal health given public debt exceeding twice GDP.
Poll: Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi Poised For Landslide — Markets Wary Of Fiscal Push
Japan's Prime Minister and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader, Sanae Takaichi, makes a fist as she addresses LDP lawmakers during the party lawmakers' meeting ahead of the dissolution of the lower house of parliament in Tokyo, Japan, January 23, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato
TOKYO, Feb 2 — A survey by the Asahi newspaper suggests Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is positioned to win a decisive victory in next week's lower house election, increasing the likelihood Japan will pursue large-scale spending and tax cuts.
If the Asahi projection holds, the LDP would comfortably surpass the 233-seat majority threshold in the 465-seat lower house, rising from its current 198 seats. With coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), the ruling bloc could reach roughly 300 seats, the poll indicated.
A commanding result would strengthen Takaichi's control of her party and give her a clear mandate to advance expansionary fiscal measures — a prospect that has already unsettled markets and raised fresh concerns about Japan's public finances.
"A huge LDP win would further strengthen Takaichi's grip on power. It won't be surprising for markets to see a higher chance of Takaichi pursuing her flagship proactive fiscal policies including a consumption tax cut," said Keisuke Tsuruta, senior bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
Japanese government bond yields rose on Monday as investors factored in the increased probability that Takaichi would secure an electoral mandate to press ahead with larger spending and potential consumption tax cuts.
The Asahi poll also suggested the largest opposition group, the Centrist Reform Alliance, may be struggling and could lose roughly half of its 167 seats. The ruling coalition currently holds a narrow majority in the powerful lower house but remains in the minority in the upper house.
Takaichi dissolved parliament last month and called a snap election for Feb. 8 to seek support for her plan to reflate the economy through expansionary fiscal policy. Markets were rattled after she pledged to suspend an 8% levy on food sales for two years — reviving investor unease about fiscal discipline in a country whose public debt exceeds twice the size of its economy.
Most other major parties have also proposed pausing or cutting the consumption tax to ease households' burden amid rising living costs, making tax policy a central issue in the campaign.
(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Sonali Paul and Stephen Coates)
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