Republicans Alarmed After 14-Point Flip In Texas As Hispanic Voters Shift

Republicans are sounding alarms after a startling decline in Hispanic support produced a surprising Democratic pickup in a reliably red Fort Worth-area state senate district over the weekend.

On Saturday, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the Fort Worth-based seat by 14 points in a district President Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024 — a dramatic swing driven largely by gains in Hispanic neighborhoods across the district.

Why The Result Matters

The outcome is the clearest sign yet that the coalition which helped elect Trump in 2024 may be fragile. Party officials and strategists warned that Republicans must reassess their approach on immigration, sharpen economic messaging aimed at working-class voters, and put more resources into competitive contests ahead of November.

“It should be an eye-opener to all of us that we all need to pick up the pace,” said U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Republican who represents a majority-Hispanic district in South Texas. “The candidate has to do their part, the party has to do their part. And then those of us in the arena, we have to do our part to help them as well.”

GOP Reaction

Sen. Ted Cruz described the result as a “very concerning outcome,” while Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called it a “wake-up call for Republicans across Texas.” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis added that “a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed.”

Some Republicans point to national controversies over immigration enforcement for the backlash. After the shooting of Alex Pretti by an immigration officer in Minneapolis, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott urged the White House to “recalibrate” its approach — an indication of how immigration policy and its optics are shaping voter sentiment.

“That imagery coming out of Minnesota in the last few days has had a huge impact on not only Hispanic voters, but swing voters, independents in Texas and around the country,” said Texas GOP consultant Brendan Steinhauser. “What's transpired there has definitely led to a bit of a political backlash.”

Why Democrats Are Energized

Democrats, buoyed by recent statewide wins in Virginia and New Jersey, see the Rehmet victory as a model: nominate candidates with strong local ties and emphasize pocketbook issues. Rehmet’s working-class profile — a union leader, Air Force veteran and Lockheed Martin machinist — and his focus on local priorities such as preserving public school funding resonated with voters.

Tory Gavito, president of Democratic donor network Way to Win, said the result injected optimism among major donors and operatives about the party’s chances in other competitive states.

Texas Stakes And Redistricting

Hispanics now comprise roughly 40 percent of Texas’s population, making the group crucial to statewide and congressional outcomes. While Trump carried Latino voters in Texas in 2024, Republicans had been consolidating gains among more conservative, rural Hispanic voters — a trend now at risk of reversing.

GOP-drawn maps last year created several majority-Hispanic districts intended to lock in those gains and target Democratic incumbents such as Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez. Some Republican strategists warn that a renewed Hispanic shift to Democrats could imperil those plans.

“They are leaving in droves and going in the opposite direction,” said Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council. “This is a warning sign.”

GOP consultant Mike Madrid, a critic of Trump, observed that younger Hispanic men in particular helped flip some contests that Democrats had long struggled to mobilize — but that hardline immigration rhetoric has alienated many of those voters.

Samuel Benson and Alex Gangitano contributed to this report.