Cuba faces intensified economic and social strain after a rise in U.S. seizures of Venezuela-linked oil tankers and a U.S. operation that reportedly captured Nicolás Maduro. Analysts warn that cutting Venezuelan oil shipments could cause prolonged blackouts, spur further mass migration and deepen a crisis in an economy that has contracted roughly 15% over six years. Experts say political change is more likely to come through leadership replacements than full regime collapse, while most Cubans remain focused on basic needs: food, electricity, housing and jobs.
Cuba on Edge: Tanker Seizures Threaten Fuel Lifeline, Risking Blackouts and Mass Migration
A person watches the oil tanker Ocean Mariner, Monrovia, arrive to the bay in Havana, Cuba, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)
As U.S. seizures of oil tankers linked to Venezuela have surged, Cubans are bracing for a new wave of economic and social shocks. Analysts warn that a sudden cutoff of Venezuelan oil — long a cornerstone of Cuba’s energy supply — could trigger prolonged blackouts, renewed mass migration and heightened social unrest after a U.S. military operation that reportedly captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Energy Shortages and Everyday Hardship
Long before the recent raids, frequent power outages and shortages shaped daily life across the island. Residents queue for gasoline and groceries amid what many describe as Cuba’s worst economic crisis in decades. "I'd be lying if I told you that I don't want to leave the country," said 16-year-old student Amanda Gómez. "We're all thinking about leaving, from the youngest to the oldest."
How Much Fuel Does Cuba Rely On?
Experts say Cuba depended heavily on Venezuelan shipments — about 35,000 barrels per day before the recent U.S. actions — supplemented by roughly 5,500 barrels per day from Mexico and about 7,500 bpd from Russia, according to Jorge Piñón of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, who tracks tanker movements with maritime monitoring tools.
"This will take an already dire situation to new extremes," said Michael Galant, senior research and outreach associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. "This is what a collapsing economy looks like."
Economic Decline and Migration
Cuba’s economy has weakened significantly in recent years. Official and expert estimates point to a roughly 15% contraction in gross domestic product over the past six years, with a reported ~4% decline in the most recent year. From 2020 to 2024 the population fell by about 1.4 million people, a drop demographers largely attribute to migration driven by worsening living conditions.
"Fuel is a factor that affects everything," said Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuban economist and demographics expert. He added that many Cubans who could afford to leave already have, but that deteriorating services and shortages will push more people to emigrate.
Risks of Blackouts and Unrest
Scholars warn that a total suspension of Venezuelan shipments could make extended statewide blackouts realistic. Jorge Duany of Florida International University said an ‘‘indefinite shutdown of the electrical system’’ could be conceivable under a complete halt, which in turn would raise the likelihood of mass protests.
Andy S. Gómez, retired dean of the School of International Studies at the University of Miami, cautioned that while unrest is possible, a full collapse of the government is less likely while senior military figures remain united and influential. He suggested political turnover would more likely take the form of leadership replacements than wholesale regime change.
What Comes Next
U.S. authorities have seized multiple tankers as part of efforts to disrupt Venezuela’s global oil distribution; at least five tankers have reportedly been taken. It is unclear whether the seized vessels were carrying fuel destined for Cuba, but analysts say any disruption to shipments would be destabilizing given the island’s fragile economy.
For now, many Cubans say their immediate priorities are practical: food, electricity, housing and work. As one analyst observed, political change is secondary for large parts of the population facing daily shortages and insecurity.
Reporting compiled from AP reporting and expert interviews cited in the original dispatch.
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