Former U.S. officials warn that the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro could remove a key oil patron and push Cuba’s fragile economy toward collapse, risking shortages of power, food and fuel. They caution that a failing Cuban state could trigger mass migration to the U.S. and other countries. Critics say the Trump administration has not presented a clear contingency plan, while some experts and Havana itself remain skeptical that collapse is imminent.
Cuba at the Brink? Officials Warn Maduro’s Capture Could Trigger Collapse — U.S. Lacks Clear Plan
An economic collapse in Cuba — just 90 miles from Florida — could produce immediate humanitarian and security consequences for the United States, former U.S. officials who worked on Latin America policy warn. They say the loss of Venezuelan oil after the capture of Nicolás Maduro risks deepening shortages of food, fuel and electricity and could prompt a surge of migration toward the U.S.
Why Cuba Is Vulnerable
With the Trump administration exerting control over Venezuela, Cuba has lost a principal economic patron and oil supplier. Those shipments — previously exchanged for money and personnel — helped prop up Havana's economy. Officials say that without a new backer or a rapid alternative energy supply, Cuba’s already fragile economy could deteriorate quickly.
Migration and Humanitarian Risks
Former diplomats warn a failing state would likely prompt people to flee. “If history is any indication, there would be mass migration; people would attempt to flee,” said Jeffrey DeLaurentis, who served as chargé d’affaires at the U.S. embassy in Havana under both the Obama and early Trump administrations. Ricardo Zúñiga, a key architect of the Obama-era rapprochement with Cuba, added: “That’s precisely the argument against bringing the state down in the absence of something to replace it — where do the people go?”
“As the economy continues to decline…you will see Cubans trying to do what they've done for decades, which is to get out when they can,” said Lawrence Gumbiner, former chargé d’affaires in Havana.
U.S. Policy, Planning Gaps and Calls for a Task Force
Critics say the U.S. government has not publicly presented a comprehensive contingency plan. Elliott Abrams, a former special representative for Venezuela, urged formation of a Cuba task force to plan for leadership transitions, fuel needs, the role of international financial institutions, and the disposition of the island’s military and police.
The Trump administration has framed Cuba’s collapse as possible and welcomed its political consequences; President Trump said Cuban Americans “are going to be very happy” if the regime falls. But senior officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have declined to discuss operational plans publicly. The White House also pointed to options to combat illicit narcotics, while the Supreme Court recently cleared the way for deportations of some Cubans admitted under humanitarian parole programs.
Mixed Assessments and Havana’s Response
Some experts caution against assuming rapid collapse. Observers note Cuba has withstood decades of sanctions and periodic shortages, and past protest movements have not toppled the government. “They’re screwed, but being bankrupt doesn’t mean they’re about to collapse,” said former Rep. Joe Garcia.
The Cuban government has acknowledged increased power outages but dismissed predictions of imminent collapse. In a post on X, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla accused President Trump of ignorance and of repeating false narratives pushed by some Cuban-American politicians.
Why This Matters
The stakes include a potential humanitarian crisis on the island, heightened migration pressure across the hemisphere, and complex security and diplomatic challenges for Washington. Former officials warn that without a public contingency plan and international coordination, any abrupt deterioration could become "messy" — involving shortages, disorder, and strain on neighboring countries and U.S. border systems.
What’s next: Officials and analysts urge rapid diplomatic outreach, contingency planning with international partners, and preparation for humanitarian and security responses should Cuba’s economy and institutions deteriorate further.
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