The US deployment in the Caribbean and recent seizures of tankers carrying Venezuelan crude have intensified debate over Washington’s motives — whether counter-narcotics, pressure for regime change, or securing access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Venezuelan production has plunged from over 3 million bpd to about 1 million bpd today; Chevron operates under a US licence and reportedly ships ~200,000 bpd to the United States. A December 16 blockade and subsequent tanker seizures risk cutting Venezuela’s export income, potentially halving shipments and increasing pressure on President Nicolás Maduro.
Is the U.S. Targeting Venezuela’s Oil? Tanker Seizures, a Blockade and the Geopolitical Stakes
US President Donald Trump (L) has accused Venezuela under Nicolas Maduro of using oil money to finance 'drug terrorism, human trafficking, murder and kidnapping' (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds)(Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/AFP)
As US forces operating in the Caribbean have tracked and intercepted tankers carrying sanctioned Venezuelan crude, scrutiny has sharpened over the true aim of former President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign on Caracas. Officials frame the operations as countering illicit activity; critics and Venezuelan authorities warn they could be about regime pressure or access to oil reserves — the largest proven in the world.
Key Statements
Brazilian mediation and concerns: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — who has offered to mediate — said he was unsure whether interest in Venezuela was "only" about oil. Mr. Trump has accused Venezuela of taking "all of our oil" and declared "we want it back."
Oil Ties
US companies have been linked to Venezuelan crude since the 1920s. Many American refineries were designed, and remain configured, to process the heavy, dense crude that Venezuela produces. Until about 2005 Venezuela was a major US supplier, with monthly shipments historically peaking in the tens of millions of barrels.
Current Output and US Links
Venezuelan production has fallen from over three million barrels per day (bpd) in the early 2000s to roughly one million bpd today — about 2% of global output. Chevron continues to operate in Venezuela under a special US licence and is estimated to account for roughly 10% of the country's current production; it is reported to be the only company authorised to ship Venezuelan crude to the United States, at about 200,000 bpd according to Venezuelan oil-sector sources.
The domestic industry has been weakened by corruption, under-investment and long-running US sanctions (in place since 2019). Analysts say the heavy investment needed to restore Venezuela’s ageing infrastructure makes large-scale private reinvestment unattractive compared with other global opportunities.
Informal Exports
Former PDVSA vice president Juan Szabo and other sources estimate that roughly 500,000 bpd move through informal or nontraditional channels, mainly to China and other Asian buyers — a flow that Washington says it is attempting to disrupt.
Blockade and Seizures
On December 16, the Trump administration announced a blockade targeting sanctioned vessels bound to and from Venezuela. In the days that followed, US forces seized the M/T Skipper, described as a "ghost" tanker reportedly carrying more than one million barrels of Venezuelan crude, allegedly destined for Cuba. US officials said they intended to retain the cargo, which they valued at tens of millions of dollars.
The US Coast Guard also detained the Centuries, identified by maritime trackers as a Chinese-owned, Panama-flagged tanker; the White House said it contained sanctioned PDVSA oil (reported at roughly 1.8 million barrels). Officials said a third vessel, widely reported as the Bella 1 — previously sanctioned over alleged Iran ties — was being pursued. AFP and other trackers have noted reporting discrepancies and said lists of sanctioned vessels do not always match public maritime registries; Washington describes the seizures as enforcement of sanctions and counter-proliferation rules.
PDVSA has publicly insisted its exports have not been disrupted by the blockade. Analysts caution that the company’s ability to store crude is limited to a matter of days if shipments stop, making uninterrupted exports critical to operations.
Economic and Political Impact
An ongoing blockade and heightened seizure risk are likely to deter commercial shipping, increase freight and insurance costs, and complicate Venezuela’s already fragile sales channels. Analysts warn exports could fall substantially — perhaps by as much as half in coming months — slashing important foreign-currency flows, particularly those tied to informal sales. A sharp revenue drop would further squeeze an economy already under severe strain and increase political pressure on President Nicolás Maduro.
Geopolitical Context
Observers and Venezuelan officials frame Washington’s actions within a broader geopolitical competition involving the United States, Russia and China. Some analysts see the moves as part of a wider effort to limit rival influence in the Americas; others emphasise law enforcement and sanctions compliance as the stated objectives. The US administration has avoided formally calling for regime change while officials have signalled intensified pressure on Maduro’s government.
What to watch next: further legal justifications from US authorities for seizing cargoes, responses from China and Russia, shipping and insurance market reactions, and whether PDVSA can maintain exports in the face of continued interdictions.
