The RNC’s chair, Joe Gruters, ignited controversy when an older audio clip surfaced in which he warned Republicans face “almost certain defeat” in the 2026 midterms. The Bulwark first published the audio; the RNC and Gruters forcefully denied any misleading reporting and reposted a fuller transcript while attacking outlets. The Bulwark reporter defended his transcription and said the RNC briefly hosted — then removed — related SoundCloud recordings. The incident highlights how a single comment can quickly escalate into a partisan media battle.
‘Almost Certain Defeat’: Unearthed Audio of RNC Chair Sparks Media Firestorm
Joe Gruters
Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters found himself at the center of a heated online dispute after an older audio clip resurfaced in which he warned Republicans face “almost certain defeat” in the 2026 midterm elections. The recording, first reported by Andrew Egger at The Bulwark and later amplified by outlets including the Daily Beast, prompted swift denials and an aggressive defense from Gruters and the RNC.
Gruters posted a short clip of the remark and labeled the coverage “absolutely fake news,” accusing Democrats and some reporters of trying to undermine confidence in President Trump and the GOP agenda. In subsequent posts he offered a series of declarative talking points aimed at reassuring supporters:
“What’s true: The Party in power has only won the Midterms 3 times in the last 100 years.
What’s true: The American people trust the President.
What’s true: This country is better off with Republicans in charge.
What’s true: We will win in 2026.”
The RNC amplified its defense, reposting a longer transcript of Gruters’s remarks and lashing out at reporters. One RNC post mocked coverage with the line, “How much does Harvard charge these days to learn how to report bullshit?” and included excerpts framing the challenge as structural: incumbents typically lose ground in midterms, the RNC said, and the party must refocus voters on the president and his record to reverse that trend.
“Our mission is to win the midterms. You know it’s what’s interesting is the party in power always gets crushed in the midterms. It’s not a secret, there’s no sugarcoating it. It’s a pending looming disaster heading our way, and the question is how can we reverse that trend? ... I LIKE OUR CHANCES IN THE MIDTERMS but let me put in perspective only three times in the last hundred years has the incumbent party been successful winning a midterm. We’re facing almost certain defeat. The only person who can bring the nose up and help us win is the President of the United States Donald J. Trump.”
Mediaite, seeking comment, received a screenshot of the RNC post from Gruters rather than new remarks. The Bulwark’s reporter, Andrew Egger, defended his transcription and said his piece quoted Gruters directly and included context showing the chairman was issuing a sober warning rather than abandoning hope. Egger also noted that the RNC had uploaded related recordings to SoundCloud and, after the stories appeared, removed those files — a claim Egger said he had linked to in his report.
The exchange rapidly escalated on social media. The RNC account and allied handles fired back at critics, at times using profanity and insults aimed at individual reporters and influencers. RNC spokesperson Kiersten Pels accused The Bulwark of “laundering DNC talking points” and of manipulating a transcript to omit lines — a charge Egger denied.
Several prominent Democrats seized on the clip to question Republican prospects and messaging ahead of 2026. Observers on all sides framed the episode as a case study in how a single, unearthed remark can trigger fast cycles of amplification, denial and partisan attack in the digital media era.
Reporting note: Sarah Rumpf contributed to the original coverage.
